经济新常态下供给侧结构性改革与居民消费升级——基于“改革门槛”与“消费黏性”的视角  

Supply-side Structural Reform and Household Consumption Upgrading under the New Normal of Economy—from the Perspective of“Reform Threshold”and“Consumption Stickiness”

作　　者：彭薇[1] 熊朗羽 PENG Wei;XIONG Langyu

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学珠海校区人文与社会科学高等研究院

出　　处：《暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第4期55-68,共14页Jinan Journal(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“供给侧结构性改革视角下我国产业创新对消费升级的影响研究”(19YJC790099)。

摘　　要：基于“改革门槛”与“消费黏性”的视角,本文运用熵权-TOPSIS法对我国供给侧结构性改革绩效进行测评,并采用2006—2017年省际面板数据综合考察供给侧结构性改革对消费升级产生的门槛效应与动态效应。研究发现:(1)供给侧结构性改革作为“供给管理”的核心,对我国居民消费升级具有显著的促进作用。(2)对于第一类与第二类消费升级,供给侧结构性改革均存在门槛效应。当实现门槛跨越时,改革能够显著推动居民消费提量扩容。(3)消费升级存在时间上的“黏性”,当期消费升级水平受到往期水平的正向影响,而供给侧结构性改革有助于打破这种“黏性”,进一步助推消费增长。(4)城乡居民人均收入、城市化水平、对外开放程度、居民家庭负担、受教育水平等因素是影响我国居民消费升级的重要变量。From the perspective of“reform threshold”and“consumption stickiness”,this paper uses Entropy-TOPSIS Method to evaluate the performance of China's supply-side structural reform,and uses 2006—2017 provincial panel data to investigate the threshold effect and dynamic effect of supply-side structural reform on consumption upgrading.The research finds that:1)As the core of“supply management”,supply-side structural reform has a significant positive effect on the upgrading of residents consumption in China;2)the supply-side structural reform has threshold effect on both types of the consumption upgrading;3)there is a“stickiness effect”on consumption.The current level of consumption upgrading is positively affected by previous levels.The supply-side structural reform will help to break this“stickiness”and further boost consumption growth;4)income per capita,urbanization level,degree of opening to the outside world,household burden,education level are important variables affecting the upgrading of residents consumption in China.

关 键 词：供给侧结构性改革 消费升级 门槛效应 消费黏性 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]