青藏高原西部阿汝冰芯记录的近100 a气温变化研究  

Study of air temperature variations during the past 100 years in the Aru ice core,western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：杨丹丹 姚檀栋[1,3,4] 邬光剑 朱美林[1] 德吉[1] YANG Dandan;YAO Tandong;WU Guangjian;ZHU Meilin;Deji(Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院青藏高原研究所青藏高原环境变化与地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京100101 [4]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2021年第1期124-134,共11页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0208);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100300)资助。

摘　　要：以2017年9月钻取自青藏高原西部阿汝冰崩区长度55.29m的阿汝冰芯为研究对象,通过冰芯δ18O记录与Nye模型重建了冰芯上部17.87m的时间序列是1917—2016年。结合冰芯邻近的改则、狮泉河气象站1973—2016年夏季平均气温数据,通过相关性分析及线性回归法、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验分析,发现冰芯与气象站记录的过去44年气温显著升高;根据M-K突变检验得出,20世纪80年代是气温变化由高—低—高的转折时期,且阿汝冰芯记录的突变年份1981年前后气温上升约1.97℃。同样地,采用线性回归法、M-K检验分析阿汝冰芯与邻近的古里雅冰芯共同记录的1917—1991年气温变化情况,发现两支冰芯记录的75年间气温变化总体呈上升趋势;根据M-K突变检验得出,升温始于20世纪30年代中后期并于50年代达到显著升温的趋势,且阿汝冰芯记录的突变年份1949年前后气温上升了约1.1℃。阿汝冰芯与气象站和古里雅冰芯记录的气温变化具有一致的升温趋势,但阿汝冰芯记录的增温幅度比气象站记录高,同时比古里雅冰芯记录的增温幅度小。The 55.29 m long Aru ice core,drilled from the Aru glacial collapse area in the western QinghaiTibet Plateau in September 2017,was researched,the time series of upper 17.87 m ice core was reconstructed from 1917 to 2016 byδ18O and the Nye model.Combining with the mean summer temperature data of adjacent Gaize and Shiquanhe stations during 1973—2016,based on correlation analysis,linear regression method,and Mann-Kendall(M-K)test analysis,found that the temperature of the ice core and the meteorological stations recorded a significant rise in the past44 years.According to the M-K mutation test,the 1980s was a transition period in which the temperature changes from high to low to high,and the abrupt year recorded by the Aru ice core increased by about 1.97℃around 1981.Similarly,using the linear regression method and M-K test to analyze the temperature changes jointly recorded by the Aru and the neighboring Guliya ice core from 1917 to 1991,it displayed an overall upward trend by the two ice cores.In the M-K mutation test,the temperature rise started in the middle and late1930 s,reached a significant temperature increase trend in the 1950s,and the temperature recorded by the Aru ice core increased by about 1.1℃around1949 during the mutation period.The Aru ice core has a consistent rising trend with the temperature changes recorded by the meteorological stations and the Guliya ice core,but the temperature increase recorded by the Aru ice core is higher than meteorological stations and lower than Guliya ice core.

关 键 词：青藏高原 阿汝冰芯 稳定氧同位素(δ18O) 气温变化 Mann-Kendall检验法 古里雅冰芯 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]