1988—2015年新疆农业用水时空变化与政策驱动研究——基于农作物水足迹的统计分析  

Spatiotemporal variations and driving forces of agricultural water consumption in Xinjiang during 1988—2015:based on statistical analysis of crop water footprint

作　　者：张沛 龙爱华[1] 海洋 邓晓雅 王浩[1] 刘静[1] 李扬[1] ZHANG Pei;LONG Aihua;HAI Yang;DENG Xiaoya;WANG Hao;LIU Jing;LI Yang(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2021年第1期242-253,共12页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404301);国家自然科学基金项目(51479209,51609260);中国工程院咨询研究项目(2020-XY-41,2020-XZ-006);新疆维吾尔自治区流域规划委员会重大咨询项目(403-1005-YBN-FT6I-2,403-1005-YBN-FT6I-7)资助。

摘　　要：农业用水是人类开发利用水资源以及影响生态系统的主要扰动因素,科学定量农业用水是合理配置与调控区域水资源的基础工作。传统的农业用水统计只是记录了可测量的用水量,而水足迹则完整刻画了人类活动对水资源系统的压力表现。从水足迹理论出发,采用Cropwat软件计算了新疆1988—2015年近20种农作物生产水足迹总量,并利用Mann-Kendall趋势和突变检验的方法,分析了28年间新疆农作物水足迹的时空变化,探讨了农作物水足迹驱动因素及机制。结果表明:新疆农作物水足迹在28年间总量增加了256%;水足迹序列在2005年前后增长出现了突变,后一阶段增长率是前一阶段的3倍以上;从农作物水足迹中蓝水足迹与绿水足迹的构成看,农作物绿水足迹呈持续增加趋势,但其在农作物水足迹总量中的比例略有下降。进一步分析表明,农业种植规模的快速扩张是新疆农作物水足迹大幅度增加的根本原因,而脱贫致富、扶贫攻坚等经济发展需求下的政策(战略)支持是农业种植规模(灌溉面积)持续快速增长的核心驱动力。通过探究农作物水足迹的变化及原因,揭示了新疆农业用水的时空变化,以及农作物水足迹与国家、地方政策和社会活动之间的关系,可为深入解析新疆农业增长与水资源开发利用及生态环境之间的时空演化关系和相关决策与政策制定提供参考。Agricultural water consumption is the main disturbance factor due to human beings exploit and utilize water resources and affect the ecosystem.Scientifically quantifying agricultural water consumption is the basic work of rationally allocating and regulating regional water resources.However,the traditional statistical method of agricultural water consumption cannot reflect the actual water use dilemma in Xinjiang truly and objectively.Therefore,this study calculates the water consumption of nearly 20 crops in Xinjiang from 1988 to 2015,based on the water footprint theory.In addition,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation of crop water footprint in Xinjiang by Mann-Kendall abrupt test,and discusses the driving factors and mechanisms of crop water footprint.The results show that the total amount of crop water footprint in Xinjiang increases by 257%over the 28 years,and increase trend changes abruptly around 2005,with the increase rate in the latter stage more than three times that of the previous stage.In terms of crop water footprint composition,the green water footprint of crops shows an increasing trend in recent 30 years,but its proportion in the total crop water footprint slightly decreases.Further,the rapid expansion of agricultural planting scale is the fundamental reason for the substantial increase of crop water footprint,and the policy or strategy support under the economic development needs of poverty alleviation and poverty alleviation is the core driver of sustained and rapid growth in agricultural planting(i.e.irrigated area).This paper explores the changes and reasons of crop water footprint,reveals the spatial and temporal changes of agricultural water use,as well as the relationship among crop water footprint,national and local policies,and social activities.The purposes of this paper are to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution relationship among agricultural growth,water resources utilization and ecology in Xinjiang.This study will be useful for related decision and policy making.

关 键 词：新疆农业用水 农作物水足迹 时空变化 原因分析 驱动机制 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P967[天文地球—自然地理学]