西藏申姆错冰湖现状调查及溃决可能性分析  

Investigation and analysis on outburst probability of Shenmucuo Glacial Lake in Tibet

作　　者：李龙[1] 牛建宗 卜亚平[1] 李鼎成 苟东霞 LI Long;NIU Jianzong;BU Yaping;LI Dingcheng;GOU Dongxia(Lanzhou Resources&Environment Voc-Tech College,Lanzhou 730021,China;Tibet Yarlung Zangbo Engineering Design Company Limited,Lasa 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州资源环境职业技术学院,甘肃兰州730021 [2]西藏雅鲁藏布工程设计有限公司,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第4期137-140,148,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：西藏自治区自然科学基金项目(XZ2019ZRG-171(Z));甘肃省高等学校创新能力提升项目(2019B-252)。

摘　　要：高海拔冰碛湖溃决灾害是青藏高原地区主要自然灾害之一,严重影响着下游地区基础设施及人民生命财产安全。近年来随着气候变暖,青藏高原地区冰川普遍退缩、冰川融水增加、冰碛湖扩张迅速,且高海拔冰碛湖溃决可能性骤增。通过2017年实地勘测数据,结合文献资料、地形图、遥感影像和冰川编目数据,分析了申姆错冰湖的基本特征,采用冰湖溃决指标评价体系对其溃决的可能性进行了分析和探讨。结果表明:(1) 1987~2016年,申姆错冰湖面积从0.96 km^(2)扩张为1.87 km^(2),水位上升3.16 m,湖冰厚度0.21 m,坝体存在不稳定因素且有溢流口,流域内自2000年以来气温、降水均呈增加(升高)趋势;(2)依据喜马拉雅山潜在危险冰湖筛选指标及其判别标准,申姆错冰湖为潜在危险冰碛湖。研究结果可为该地区防灾减灾及水资源开发管理提供参考。Moraine lake outburst flood in high elevation regions is one of main natural hazards on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which are increasingly threatening the infrastructure and people’s lives and property in the downstream area.Recently with warming of the climate, significant changes of glaciers have happened on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau including glaciers moving back, increased glacial meltwater, rapidly expanded moraine lakes, and increasing outburst probability of the moraine lakes.Based on the field survey data of 2017,combing with the literature data, topographic maps, remote sensing images and glacier inventory of China in different periods, the characteristics of Shenmucuo Glacier Lake were analyzed.And the outburst probability of Shenmucuo Glacier Lake was discussed by the evaluation system for glacier lake outburst.The results showed that:(1) During 1987~2016,the area of glacier lake expanded from 0.96 km2 to 1.87 km2,water-level raised 3.16 m, and the depth of glacier was 0.21 m.There existed instability factors and overflow ports for the dam of Shenmucuo Glacier Lake.The air temperature and precipitation of the basin also increased since 2000.(2) According to the indices and criteria of hazard assessment for glacier lake outburst floods in the Himalayas, the Shenmucuo Glacier Lake was assessed to be the potentially dangerous moraine lakes.The research results can provide reference for disaster prevention and water resources development and management in this area.

关 键 词：冰川湖泊 溃决洪水 气候变化 申姆错冰湖 西藏 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]