云南省服务贸易与经济增长的协整关系分析  

Analysis on the cointegration relationship between service trade and economic growth in Yunnan Province

作　　者：林楚天 汪维 李娇 Lin Chutian;Wang Wei;Li Jiao(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学,昆明650221

出　　处：《北方经贸》2021年第4期19-23,共5页Northern Economy and Trade

摘　　要：运用Eviews10.0分析研究了云南省2006~2018年度的服务贸易与经济增长的协整关系,建立了服务贸易进出口与经济增长关系的VAR模型。检验结果表明,云南省服务贸易进出口与GDP之间存在协整关系,另外,Granger检验结果,服务贸易进口与GDP之间存在单向的因果关系,后者为前者的格兰杰因。据方差分解,从短期来看,服务贸易进出口对经济增长作用不显著,而从长期来看,服务贸易进口、出口对经济增长均有正向影响,其中,服务贸易进口对GDP的贡献度达7.2%,出口贡献度为2.2%。因此,建议云南政策支持服务贸易,重点增强服务贸易进口能力,从而反向刺激经济增长,另外,抓住数字经济,推动服务贸易数字化。This paper uses Eviews10.0 to analyze the co-integration relationship between trade in services and economic growth in Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2018,and establishes the Var model of the relationship between trade in services import and export and economic growth.The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between service trade imports and exports and GDP in Yunnan Province.In addition,there is a one-way causality between service trade imports and GDP.According to the variance decomposition,in the short run,the service trade imports and exports have no significant effect on economic growth,but in the long run,the service trade imports and exports all have an effect on economic growth,among which the service trade imports contribute 7.2%to GDP,the export contribution was 2.2 per cent.Therefore,it is suggested that Yunnan should support trade in services by policies that focus on enhancing the import capacity of trade in services,thus stimulating economic growth in the opposite direction.

关 键 词：服务贸易 经济增长 协整关系 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]