1995-2019年南充市HIV/AIDS患者生存时间及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Survival Time and Influencing Factors of HIV/AIDS Patients in Nanchong City From 1995 to 2019

作　　者：吴鹏[1] 张芹[1] 兰洪兵 吴涛[1] 车双双 WU Peng;ZHANG Qin;LAN Hongbing;WU Tao;CHE Shuangshuang(Nanchong City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanchong 637000,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]南充市疾病预防控制中心,四川南充637000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2021年第4期454-459,464,共7页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的分析南充市艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者/艾滋病(AIDS)患者(简称HIV/AIDS患者)生存时间及影响因素。方法采用回顾性队列研究,对1995-2019年现住址为南充市的HIV/AIDS患者的流行病学调查资料进行分析,利用寿命表计算生存率,运用Kaplan-Meier法、Cox回归模型分析生存时间及其影响因素。结果 4 863例HIV/AIDS患者观察期内平均生存时间(3.02±2.77)年,估计最大生存时间平均为(12.98±0.14)年,1、5、10和15年累积生存率分别为91.74%、85.12%、77.99%和77.06%。多因素分析结果显示:男性死亡风险高于女性;文化程度越高死亡风险越低;同性传播、其他途径感染者死亡风险均低于异性传播;AIDS患者死亡风险是HIV感染者的4.519倍;CD4细胞计数水平<350个/mm^(3)死亡风险是≥350个/mm^(3)的2.593倍;未接受抗病毒治疗的患者死亡风险是治疗者的13.743倍。结论应进一步加强男性、低文化水平者的HIV抗体检测、艾滋病防治知识宣传和抗病毒治疗依从性教育,加大异性传播途径的防控力度,切实提高抗病毒治疗覆盖率和有效率,遏制或延缓HIV感染者转为AIDS患者,延长HIV/AIDS患者生存时间。Objective To analyze the survival time and influencing factors of HIV-infected/AIDS patients(HIV/AIDS patients)in Nanchong city.Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the epidemiological survey data of HIV/AIDS patients currently living in Nanchong city from 1995 to 2019.The survival rate was calculated using the life table,and the survival time and its influencing factors were analyzed by using the kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model.Results The mean survival time of the 4863 HIV/AIDS cases during the observation period was3.02±2.77 years,and the maximum estimated survival time was 12.98±0.14 years.The 1-year,5-year,10-year and 15-year cumulative survival rates were 91.74%,85.12%,77.99%and 77.06%,respectively.The results of the multivariate analysis showed that:the risk of death of male was higher than that of female.The higher the level of education,the lower the risk of death;The risk of death of those infected by homosexual transmission and other means was lower than that of heterosexual transmission.The risk of death of AIDS patients was 4.519 times higher than that of those infected with HIV.The mortality risk of CD4 cell count<350/mm^(3) was 2.593 times higher than that of≥350/mm^(3).Patients who did not receive antiviral therapy had a 13.743 times higher risk of dying than those who did.Conclusion The HIV antibody testing,HIV/AIDS prevention knowledge propaganda and antiviral treatment compliance education for male and the patients with low cultural level should be strengthen,the prevention and control efforts of heterosexual transmission should be strengthen too,the coverage rate and effective rate of antiviral treatment should be improve effectively,so that to contain or postpone the conversion of HIV infection patients to AIDS patients,and prolong the HIV/AIDS patients’survival time.

关 键 词：HIV/AIDS患者 生存率 生存时间 影响因素 

分 类 号：R512.9[医药卫生—内科学]