川藏铁路可研阶段重大工程地质风险分析  

RISK ANALYSIS OF MAJOR ENGINEERING GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS FOR SICHUAN-TIBET RAILWAY IN THE PHASE OF FEASIBILITY STUDY

作　　者：兰恒星 张宁[1] 李郎平 田乃满[2] 仉义星 刘世杰 林感 田朝阳 伍宇明 姚佳明[2] 彭建兵 周成虎[2] LAN Hengxing;ZHANG Ning;LI Langping;TIAN Naiman;ZHANG Yixing;LIU Shijie;LIN Gan;TIAN Chaoyang;WU Yuming;YAO Jiaming;PENG Jianbing;ZHOU Chenghu(School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安710054 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2021年第2期326-341,共16页Journal of Engineering Geology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(资助号:41941019);国家自然科学基金(资助号:42041006,41927806,41807291);青藏高原二次科考(资助号:2019QZKK0904)。

摘　　要：川藏铁路作为史上修建难度最大的铁路,沿线具有显著的地形高差、强烈的板块活动、密集的深大断裂、频发的山地灾害等恶劣地质环境特点,工程建设面临着复杂多变的地表和地下重大地质安全风险挑战。为深入综合分析川藏铁路可研阶段沿线地质风险,定量评价其对工程的影响,基于川藏铁路沿线翔实的时空数据集及资料,采用三维结构建模、数值统计建模、动力建模、时空建模等方法,进行了地表、地下重大工程地质灾害综合定量风险分析。地表工程地质灾害综合风险分析结果表明:在宏观上,川藏铁路沿线存在3个地表地质灾害高风险区,分别是鲜水河断裂带、金沙江断裂带和东构造结地区。由于川藏铁路采用以隧道为主的设计方案,地表地质灾害的风险大大降低。分别建立了活动断裂、岩爆和大变形等风险评估的普适性模型及综合风险分析模型,以易贡隧道为例,对典型重要隧道全线不同段落断裂活动性、岩爆、大变形等典型地下工程地质风险以及综合风险进行了定量评价。结果表明:川藏铁路沿线的地质灾害、断裂活动、岩爆和大变形等重大工程地质灾害的总体风险等级较高,影响工程安全;定量评估结果可以进一步指导后续的设计与施工的优化和深化。本研究为川藏铁路可行性研究提供了有力的科学支撑,同时也为国内外类似线性工程地质灾害风险分析提供参考。The Sichuan-Tibet Railway is the most challenging railway project ever in the world.The project region is characterized by various adverse geological conditions including active tectonic movement,intensive mega faults,abrupt topographic relief and frequent geological disasters.Therefore,the construction of this project is challenged by complex geological disaster risks from both ground surface and underground.This study comprehensively and quantitatively analyzes the ground surface and underground geological risks along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and further evaluates their consequential influences on the project so as to support its feasibility study.The risk analysis utilizes abundant spatial-temporal data,and various approaches including three-dimensional structure modeling,numerical modeling,statistical modeling,dynamic modeling,time series modeling and spatial distribution modeling.The results show that there are three areas concentrated with high ground surface geological hazards risk along the Sichuan-Tibet railway,namely the Xianshuihe fault zone,the Jinshajiang fault zone and the eastern Himalayan syntaxis area.However,ground surface engineering risks of this project are significantly reduced,because its underground tunnels are over 80%of the total railway line length.The universal quantitative risk assessment models are developed for major underground engineering geological risks,including fault activities,rock bursts and large deformations.For several major tunnels such as the Yigong tunnel,risks of typical individual underground geological hazards(e.g.rock burst and large deformation)as well as the integrated risk,are quantitatively evaluated.The results show that both surface and subsurface engineering risks are significant and can threaten the safety of project.This study provides a scientific and technical support for the feasibility study of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and is also expected to be a reference for major engineering geological risk control for similar line engineering projects around the

关 键 词：川藏铁路 重大工程 地表工程地质风险 地下工程地质风险 定量风险分析 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]