基于系统动力学的电动汽车产业发展建模与仿真  

Modeling and Simulation of Electric Vehicle Industry Development Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：付跃强[1] 夏天添 Fu Yueqiang;Xia Tiantian(The Center of Collaboration and Innovation,Jiangxi University of Technology,Nanchang 330098,China)

机构地区：[1]江西科技学院协同创新中心,江西南昌330098

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2021年第4期973-981,共9页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：江西省社科规划项目(19YJ29);江西科技学院开放基金(19XTKFYB07);江西省教改项目(JXJG-18-24-2)。

摘　　要：新能源电动汽车是汽车产业升级的主要方向,对保障能源安全、改善生态环境有重要作用,因此,开展新能源电动汽车发展研究有一定的理论和现实意义。对电动汽车产业发展的影响因素进行系统分析,建立因果关系模型、存量流量模型,确定动力学方程并进行参数赋值。在模型有效性得到验证的基础上,进行系统仿真和分析,探索新能源电动汽车发展趋势及主要影响因素,并从政府补贴、关键技术突破、充换电基础设施建设、消费市场培育等方面提出了电动汽车产业发展对策建议。New energy electric vehicle are the main trend of automobile industry upgrading. It plays an important role in ensuring the energy security and improving the ecological environment. It is of theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the development of new energy electric vehicles. The affecting factors are systematically analyzed, the causal relationship model and stock flow model are established, and the dynamic equation of the model are determined and the parameter assignments are made. The model is verified and the system simulation and analysis are performed. The development trend and main influencing factors of new energy electric vehicles are explored. The countermeasures for the development of electric vehicle industry are put forward from the aspects of government subsidies, key technological breakthroughs, charging and replacement infrastructure construction, and consumer market cultivation.

关 键 词：系统动力学 电动汽车 VENSIM 系统仿真 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]