1990~2013年我国省域人口死亡率估计及变动趋势研究  

An Estimation of Provincial Mortality and Its Changing Trend in China:1990-2013

作　　者：唐爽 刘乐平 李凤伟 TANG Shuang;LIU Le-ping;LI Feng-wei(Institute of Statistics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计学院,天津300222

出　　处：《南方人口》2021年第2期17-30,共14页South China Population

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于机器学习的长期护理保险精算预测模型与风险分析”(71771163)。

摘　　要：为深入了解我国省域人口死亡率变化规律,本文以1990、2000和2010年三次人口普查数据为基础,结合我国台湾地区和日本人口死亡数据,利用我国省域5岁以下儿童死亡率,采用SVD-Comp模型估计1990~2013年我国省域分性别、分年龄人口死亡率,并对高龄人口数据进行修正,最后计算不同地区分性别新生儿预期寿命。结果表明,我国省域人口预期寿命水平呈“东高西低”的空间格局,女性高于男性的性别特征;研究期内我国地区间人口预期寿命差异逐渐缩小后保持稳定,性别间预期寿命差距逐渐扩大至5.8岁后再减小;预期寿命并非匀速增长,其增长经历先加速再减速后匀速(0.2岁/年)的过程。In order to understand the changing laws of the provincial mortality in China, based on the three census data of 1990, 2000 and 2010, combined with the mortality of Taiwan province and Japan, this paper uses the SVD-Comp model to estimate the provincial gender-and age-specific mortality in Chinese mainland from 1990 to 2013,to revise the old-age mortality and to calculate the life expectancy at birth by regions and genders in China. The results show that, the spatial pattern of life expectancy at birth is higher in the east and lower in the west, while the gender comparation show that woman’s is higher than man’s. During the period, the life expectancy gap between different regions gradually reduced and then remained stable, the gender gap gradually enlarged to a high point of 5.8 year and then began to reduce. The Life expectancy does not increase at a constant rate, instead, it increase at a accelerated rate firstly, then at a decelerated rate, eventually return to increase at a constant annual rate of 0.2 years per year.

关 键 词：人口死亡率 预期寿命 省域差异 SVD-Comp模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]