基于复杂网络理论的全球精炼铜贸易特征分析  

Analysis of global trade characteristics of refined copper and its products based on the complex network theory

作　　者：李步界 邢万里[2] LI Bujie;XING Wanli(School of Business,Hong Kong Baptist University,Hong Kong 999077,China;Global Center for Resources Strategy Research,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]香港浸会大学工商管理学院,香港999077 [2]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《中国矿业》2021年第5期57-64,共8页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：北京联合大学2019年科研项目资助(编号:SK30201910)。

摘　　要：随着国民经济的增长,中国铜资源消费量快速增长,但由于资源难以满足国内需求,中国已经逐渐成为全球第一大铜资源进口国。2019年中国铜资源对外依存度高达70%。本文通过构建全球精炼铜复杂网络模型,运用强度、平均路径长度、平均聚集系数、模块度、接近中心度、中介中心度和聚类系数等指标,对2000-2019年全球精炼铜贸易特征及演变趋势进行研究,得出整个观察期内全球精炼铜的需求中心发生了转移,随之出现了新的供应中心。精炼铜贸易繁荣程度呈现上升趋势,国家和国家之间精炼铜贸易往来逐渐密切,保持良好的贸易畅通。贸易网络传输效率在提升,国家与国家之间的贸易更加通畅,壁垒减少,直接贸易增加,效率的提升也减少了贸易成本。全球精炼铜贸易的社团化现象较弱,有着向更加全球化的趋势发展。目前全球精炼铜的贸易网络主要受进口大国影响,进口国的话语权要大于出口国。现阶段,中国应该抓住转型升级机会,不仅要进口精炼铜而且要出口其相关制品,深度参与全球精炼铜贸易,可以在一定程度上联合精炼铜贸易出口大国,打破现有西方国家垄断的格局。With the growth of the national economy,the consumption of copper resources in China has increased rapidly.However,due to the difficulty of domestic resources to meet the domestic demand,China has gradually become the largest importer of copper resources in the world.In 2019,China s dependence on foreign copper resources is as high as 70%.In this paper,by constructing the global refined copper complex network model,using the strength,the average path length,average aggregation coefficient,module,close to the center,the mediation center degrees and clustering coefficient index,the global refined copper trade characteristic and evolution trend from 2000 to 2019,it is concluded that the whole observation period of the world s refined copper demand center shifted,then a new supply center.The prosperity of refined copper trade shows an upward trend,and the refined copper trade between countries is gradually closer,and a good smooth trade is maintained.Trade network transmission efficiency is improving,trade between countries is more common,barriers are reduced,direct trade is increased,and efficiency improvement also reduces trade costs.The corporatization of global refined copper trade is weak,and it has a tendency to be more globalized.At present,the global trade network of refined copper is mainly influenced by big importing countries,and the power of the importing countries is greater than that of the exporting countries.At the present stage,China should seize the opportunity of transformation and upgrading,not only import refined copper but also export its related products,and deeply participate in the global refined copper trade.To some extent,China can unite with major exporting countries in refined copper trade to break the existing monopoly pattern of western countries.

关 键 词：精炼铜 复杂网络 国际贸易 资源安全 中国 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F416.1