俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的评估检验实例——2021年2月13日日本福岛县东部海域M_(W)7.1地震  

Case study in evaluating the subduction ground motion model of SMA2020 February 13,2021,eastern Fukushima Prefecture,Japan M_(W)7.1 offshore earthquake

作　　者：王大任 刘也 任叶飞[1] 温瑞智[1] WANG Daren;LIU Ye;REN Yefei;WEN Ruizhi(Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2021年第2期66-73,共8页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0115700);国家自然科学基金(51878632);黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(YQ2019E036)。

摘　　要：地震动预测具有较大不确定性,利用强震动观测记录对已有地震动预测模型进行检验评估对于模型的合理使用具有重要参考意义。针对2021年2月13日发生在日本福岛县东部海域的M_(W)7.1地震,基于残差分析和对数似然函数法对俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的路径项和场地项表征合理性、模型的预测精确性进行了评估。得到结果:(1)SMA2020模型对于地震动的路径衰减表征较为合理,在路径项中考虑了莫霍面反射效应,可以更真实地表征俯冲带深源地震的路径效应。(2)SMA2020模型对于PGV的场地效应表征较为合理,但对于PGA及PSA的场地效应表征有所偏差,还需要进一步检验验证。(3)SMA2020模型对于此次板内地震的短周期IM预测精确性要优于中长周期,对于T=1s的PSA预测表现最不佳。研究结果可为模型的潜在使用者提供有价值的辅助信息,也可以为我国地震动预测模型的开发研究提供理论参考。Predicting ground motion produces large uncertainty generally,calling for evaluating reliability of the current-used ground-motion models by means of the field strong motion records.Using the residual analysis and log-likelihood function method,the rationality of path and site effect terms of subduction ground motion prediction model,SMA2020 was evaluated.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)The SMA2020 model characterizes appropriately the path effect of ground motion.It is validated that the consideration of Moho-interface reflection effect in the model is accepted,which represent correctly the path effect of deep focal earthquakes in the subduction zone;(2)The modeling of the site effect for PGV by SMA2020 performs well,but somewhat biased for PGA and PSA that needs further investigations;(3)For the case of this intraplate event,SMA2020 predicts the short-period intensity measures(IMs)more accurately than the medium-and long-period IMs,and worst for the PSA at T=1s.The results from this study could provide valuable information for potential users of the SMA2020 model,and support theoretically for the development of ground motion models in China.

关 键 词：俯冲带地震动预测模型 SMA2020 日本本州东海岸M_(W)7.1地震 模型评估 对数似然函数法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]