基于生态位模型的森林害虫潜在分布区预测研究进展——以蒙古高原雅氏落叶松尺蠖为例  

Research Progress on Prediction of Potential Distribution Areas of Forest Pests Based on Niche Models——Taking Erannis Jacobsoni Djak in the Mongolian Plateau as an Example

作　　者：李佩玲 Li Peiling(School of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010022,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《绿色科技》2021年第8期17-19,共3页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:41861056,61631011);内蒙古自然科学基金(编号:2018MS04008)。

摘　　要：指出了生态位模型是使用物种分布和系列环境变量数据,借助于某一算法对物种的生态需求进行分析,其运算结果在不同时空中的表达即为物种的实际和潜在分布区。近年来,该种模型在物种潜在分布区、动植物入侵风险、生物多样性保护、全球气候变化与物种分布等研究中得到广泛应用。从雅氏落叶松尺蠖的分布现状、生态位模型构建的基本原理应用等方面探讨了生态位模型在雅氏落叶松尺蠖潜在分布预测中的应用。生态位模型利用物种的分布点数据及与之相关的环境变量来模拟物种潜在分布,预测结果取决于环境变量的类别、分辨率等因素。MaxEnt模型基于有限的分布信息进行潜在分布区预测,且能在预测时充分考虑已知信息,而对未知信息不做过多揣测,根据客观的环境变量特征得出约束条件,探寻此约束条件下,该模型能够根据物种“出现点”的最大熵的可能分布。该种模型在蒙古高原雅氏落叶松尺蠖潜在分布预测研究中极具应用潜力。The niche model uses species distribution and a series of environmental variable data to analyze the ecological needs of the species with the aid of an algorithm.The expression of the calculation results in different time and space is the actual and potential distribution areas of the species.In recent years,this model has been widely used in research on potential distribution areas of species,risk of plant and animal invasion,biodiversity conservation,global climate change and species distribution.This paper discusses the application of the niche model in the prediction of the potential distribution of Erannis Jacobsoni Djak from the aspects of the distribution status and the basic principles of niche model construction.The niche model uses the distribution point data of the species and related environmental variables to simulate the potential distribution of the species,and the prediction results depend on the categories,resolution and other factors of the environmental variables.The MaxEnt model predicts the potential distribution areas based on limited distribution information,and can fully consider the known information when predicting,and does not make too much speculation on the unknown information.It draws constraints based on the characteristics of objective environmental variables,and explores the constraints.The model can be based on the possible distribution of the maximum entropy of the species″appearance point″.This model has great application potential in the study of potential distribution prediction of Erannis Jacobsoni Djak in Mongolian plateau.

关 键 词：生态位模型 物种潜在分布 蒙古高原 雅氏落叶松尺蠖 MaxEnt模型 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]