中美贸易摩擦对柑橘贸易影响分析——基于WITS-SMART模型  

Analysis of the Impact of Sino-USA Trade Friction on Citrus Trade——Based on WITS-SMART Model

作　　者：李向阳[1] 孙东升[1] LI Xiangyang;SUN Dongsheng

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第3期74-82,186,187,共11页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：第三次全国农业普查国家级重大研究课题“农业产业安全战略研究”(G02)。

摘　　要：柑橘是中美第一大水果产业,也是中美农产品贸易的重要组成部分,柑橘贸易在中美贸易摩擦中受到显著影响。采用WITS-SMART模型模拟中美贸易摩擦和柑橘贸易自由化两种情景下中美柑橘贸易受到的影响,研究发现:第一,贸易摩擦中,从消费角度看,中国消费者剩余及关税收入受到的影响较明显,但整体可控,但从行业角度看,美国柑橘在中国市场上竞争力严重受挫,出口受到显著不利影响;第二,出于柑橘行业角度考虑,中美贸易合作甚至贸易自由化是美方的更优选择,相比贸易摩擦情景,贸易自由化情境下美国出口中国柑橘规模增加接近1亿美元;第三,当替代弹性发生变化时,进口国的柑橘总进口、消费者剩余指标不变,而从不同市场的柑橘进口额及相应关税收入发生变化。提出应减少贸易摩擦,推动贸易自由化,以利于中美柑橘产业发展;同时加快培育柑橘新型经营主体,提升中国柑橘商品化处理和标准化水平,增强出口竞争力。The citrus is the largest fruit crop both in China and USA,and citrus trade is an important part of Sino-USA agricultural product trade which has been significantly affected by the Sino-USA trade friction.The WITS-SMART model was used to simulate the impact on US-China citrus trade under two scenarios:US-China trade friction and citrus trade liberalization.The research finds that:(1)from the perspective of consumption,the impact on China consumer surplus and tariff income is obvious but controllable in the trade friction,but from the perspective of industry,the competitiveness of USA citrus in the China market has been severely frustrated,and exports have been significantly adversely affected;(2)from the perspective of the citrus industry,Sino-USA trade cooperation or even trade liberalization is the better choice for the USA and the scale of USA citrus exports to China increased by nearly 100 million dollars in the scenario of trade liberalization compared with in the scenario of trade frictions;(3)when substitution elasticity changes,the total citrus imports and consumer surplus indicators of the importing country remain unchanged,while the citrus imports from different markets and the corresponding tariff revenues change.It’s proposed to reduce trade frictions and promote trade liberalization which is mutually beneficial to the development of the citrus industry in China and USA.At the meantime,we should accelerate the cultivation of new citrus business entities and promote the commercialization and standardization of citrus in China to enhance export competitiveness.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 贸易自由化 WITS-SMART模型 贸易创造 贸易转移 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]