人口流动、财政分权与地方政府债务——基于省级面板数据的经验分析  

Population Migration,Fiscal Decentralization and Local Government Debts:Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：刘馨月[1] 金兆怀[1] LIU Xin-yue;JIN Zhao-huai(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济与管理学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《经济问题》2021年第5期63-70,共8页On Economic Problems

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社科基金专项课题“全球金融治理体系改革及中国参与方案——基于人类命运共同体理论研究”(18VSJ045)。

摘　　要：经济社会转型过程中,"压力型"体制使得大规模举债成为地方政府缓解财政压力的重要途径。在分析人口流动、财政分权对地方政府债务水平影响的基础上,利用2007—2018年省级面板数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,地方政府间存在着明显举债竞争现象,即本地区债务水平的提高将引起相邻地区债务水平提高;财政支出分权越高,地方政府的债务水平越高;人口流动与地方政府呈显著正相关关系,具体表现为人口流入(流出)将显著降低(提高)本地区地方政府的负债水平。以上结论在经过进一步检验后依然成立,具有较好稳健性。基于上述结论,完善官员考核体系并建立"以人为主体"的公共品供给机制是规范地方债务的重要举措。In the process of economic and social transformation,the"pressure-type"system has made largescale borrowing by local governments an important way to relieve fiscal pressure.Based on the analysis of the impact of population migration and fiscal decentralization on the debt level of local governments,the paper makes an empirical test using provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018.The results show that there is an obvious phenomenon of debt competition among local governments,that is,the increase of local debt level will lead to the increase of neighboring regions’debt level.The higher decentralization of fiscal expenditure,the higher level of local government debt.There is a significant positive correlation between population migration and local government,and specifically the inflow(outflow)of population will significantly reduce(increase)the debt level of local government.The above conclusions are still valid after further testing and have good robustness.Based on the above conclusions,improving the official assessment system and establishing a"people-oriented"public goods supply mechanism are important measures to regulate local debts.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 人口流动 财政分权 户籍制度 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]