全球价值链贸易网络分析与国际风险传导应对  

Network analysis of global value chain and coping with international risk transmission

作　　者：刘景卿 车维汉 夏方杰 LIU Jing-qing;CHE Wei-han;XIA Fang-jie(School of Management,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Shanghai Gold Exchange,Shanghai 200001,China;College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433 [2]上海黄金交易所,上海200001 [3]上海财经大学商学院,上海200433

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2021年第3期1-17,共17页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71903084);国家社会科学基金资助项目(18CJY045,19CJY063);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2019M661385).

摘　　要：在全球化生产不断演进的背景下,参与国际分工各国在共享分工福利的同时,如何避免外部世界的冲击?关于这一问题,若从一国所处的与其他国家的价值链贸易网络的视角给予考察,或许能够得到一些答案.本文基于2000年~2014年世界投入产出数据,研究发现全球价值链贸易网络具有“小世界现象”和“无标度特性”等复杂网络性质,且整个网络的演化是一个循序渐进的过程.接着指出,在全球生产网络分析框架下,一国可通过强化其在全球价值链贸易网络中的集约性和广延性特征,实现自身重要程度的提高,弱化来自外部波动的影响.最后,从进口(投入)和出口(产出)两个方向对上述结论给予验证,即一国可通过增加上下游贸易对象数量并降低贸易强度分布集中度,做广做均全球外贸发展布局,弱化内外部之间风险互相传导的冲击,稳健全球价值链贸易网络.In an evolving globalized production environment,how does every county avoid the external shock while sharing the benefits through participating in international division of labor?Some new insights might be obtained if it is studied from the perspective of value chain trade network that a country has with other countries.Based on world input-output data from 2000-2014,this paper finds global value chain trade network has some complex network properties such as“small-world phenomenon”and“scale-free characteristics”,and that the evolution of this whole network is a gradual process.Then,the paper concludes that a country can increase its importance in the global value chain trade network by strengthening its intensity and extensity features,to weaken the impact from external shock.Finally,this paper verifies the above conclusions from both import(input)and export(output)directions:A country can increase the number of trade partners both upstream and downstream and reduce their trade intensity distribution concentration to make the world trade development layout broad and even,to weaken the shock of internal and external risk transmission and to increase the robustness of global value chain trade network.

关 键 词：全球价值链 小世界现象 无标度特性 国际风险传导 网络广延性 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]