全球自主武器系统的发展及其对战略稳定性的影响  

The Development of the Global Autonomous Weapons System and Its Impact on Strategic Stability

作　　者：张煌[1] 杜雁芸 Zhang Huang;Du Yanyun

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学文理学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《国际论坛》2021年第3期79-96,158,共19页International Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金计划一般项目“网络军备控制困境分析及我国战略选择研究”(17BGJ035)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：长期以来,人们习惯于在核武器的范围内探讨战略稳定性问题,未能对网络、太空以及无人作战等新兴领域军备发展引发的战略稳定性问题给予足够的重视。本文聚焦当前在国际冲突中扮演重要角色的自主武器系统,从自主情报分析、自主指挥编成以及自主火力打击三个方面界定了自主武器系统的定义,分析了世界主要军事强国、技术后发国家以及非政府行为体围绕发展自主武器系统展开的国际竞赛,从危机稳定性和军备竞赛稳定性两个维度揭示自主武器系统对全球战略稳定性带来的新挑战:一方面,自主武器系统有利于强化“第一次打击”优势、加剧危机“意外爆发”和“意外升级”的风险,导致危机稳定性进一步降低;另一方面,较低的扩散门槛、研发过程的不透明性以及围绕自主武器系统的认知差异,导致自主武器系统的军备竞赛愈演愈烈。为应对自主武器系统对全球战略稳定性的挑战,中国应当在联合国框架下积极参与自主武器系统的军备控制与危机管控,增进与掌握自主武器技术的主要国家间的战略互信,推动构建维护自主武器系统战略稳定性的全球治理网络。For a long time,people think of strategic stability mostly with reference to nuclear weapons,but not to developments in emerging fields such as cyber,space and unmanned equipment.This paper focuses on the autonomous weapons system(AWS)which plays an important role in international conflicts.It defines the AWS from three aspects:autonomous intelligence analysis,autonomous command and formation,and autonomous firepower attack.It analyzes the international AWS competition by the world’s major military powers,technological latecomers,and non-governmental actors,and examines the AWS challenge to global strategic stability in terms of crisis stability and arms race stability.On the one hand,the AWS is likely to strengthen first-strike advantages and increase the risk of accidents and“accidental escalation,”which further reduces stability in a crisis.On the other hand,due to the low threshold of proliferation,the non-transparent R&D process,and the different perceptions about the AWS,the AWS arms race is becoming more and more intense.In order to meet the AWS challenge to global strategic stability,China should actively participate in arms control and crisis management of the AWS under the UN framework,enhance strategic mutual trust with major countries that have ASW technologies,and promote the construction of a global governance network to maintain the strategic stability of the AWS.

关 键 词：自主武器系统 战略稳定性 危机稳定性 军备竞赛稳定性 战略互信 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]