RCEP协定对宏观经济和制造业发展的影响——基于GTAP模拟分析  

The Impact of RCEP Agreement on Macroeconomic and Manufacturing Development——GTAP-based Simulation Analysis

作　　者：李金叶[1] 胡佳霖 Li Jinye;Hu Jialin(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2021年第6期134-142,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“中国与中亚非资源型产业合作路径研究”(项目编号:19YJA790040);新疆教育厅文科基地重点项目“中亚经济形势跟踪研究”(项目编号:XJEDU010616A01)。

摘　　要：区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)历经八年的谈判后正式签署,近年国际关注度不断提高。本文通过显性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数对各经济体的制造业竞争力及互补性进行分析,采用动态GTAP模型对RCEP生效后14年间的经济影响进行模拟,并通过静态GTAP模型对主要经济体制造业部门的发展变化进行预测。研究发现:(1)全球产业链深度融合,各成员国间贸易联系将随着RCEP的落地更加紧密;(2)RCEP落地后会促使各成员国宏观经济、社会福利及贸易条件等均衡发展,其中韩、日、中依次受益较为突出,而短期内美国及欧盟等其他国家的经济利益将受到一定的负面冲击;(3)中国的传统制造业产业优势将会随着全球贸易格局的调整,进而带动我国整体产业结构加快转型升级步伐。The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement was formally signed after eight years of negotia⁃tions,and international attention has been increasing in recent years.The manufacturing competitiveness and complementarity of each economy are analyzed through the Explicit Comparative Advantage Index and Trade Complementarity Index,and the economic impact of the RCEP during the 14 years after its entry into force is simulated using the dynamic GTAP model,and the changes in the development of the manufacturing sector of major economies are predicted through the static GTAP model.It is found that:(1)the global industrial chain is deeply integrated,and trade ties among member countries will become closer with the implementation of RCEP;(2)the implementation of RCEP will promote the balanced development of macroeconomics,social welfare and terms of trade of member countries,among which Korea,Japan and China will benefit more prominently in turn,while the economic intere⁃sts of other countries such as the United States and the European Union will be negatively affected in the short term;(3)China's traditional manufacturing industry advantage will be adjusted with the global trade pattern,and then drive China's overall industrial structure to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading.

关 键 词：RCEP协定 宏观经济 制造业 GTAP模型 显性比较优势指数 贸易互补性指数 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济] F407