中国邮轮始发港消费腹地的断-电模型划分  

Power off model of consumption hinterland division in China’s cruise departure port

作　　者：李振福 鲍琦 彭琰 李香栋 LI Zhen-fu;BAO Qi;PENG Yan;LI Xiang-dong(School of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;School of Shipping Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2021年第1期72-82,共11页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(19FZZB013);国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA207);国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目(2016YFC142706)。

摘　　要：为明确邮轮始发港消费腹地范围,采用断-电模型、聚类分析等定量研究方法,建立包括人群消费能力、出游意愿、邮轮始发港自身发展水平等多层次的复合指标体系,并借助SPSS 24软件对目前已经建成的10大邮轮始发港的消费腹地进行划分.结果表明:知名度较高且基础设施建设比较完善的三亚凤凰岛国际邮轮始发港、天津国际邮轮始发港、上海吴淞口国际邮轮始发港消费腹地辐射范围较广;深圳太子湾邮轮始发港、广州南沙邮轮始发港、厦门海峡邮轮始发港等背靠一线城市以及青岛邮轮始发港、海口邮轮始发港、大连邮轮始发港等背靠沿海旅游城市的邮轮始发港消费腹地范围大多集中于其周边地区;香港启德邮轮码头受该地区交通便利程度及其他因素的影响,消费腹地范围最小.研究结果可为邮轮始发港的发展规划提供参考.In order to define the consumption hinterland scope of cruise departure port,a multi-level composite index system including people’s consumption ability,travel willingness,cruise departure port’s own development level,etc.was established by using quantitative research methods such as power-off model and cluster analysis,and the consumption hinterland of the top ten cruise departure ports was divided by SPSS 24 software.The results show that the cruise departure port with high reputation and relatively perfect infrastructure construction as Sanya Phoenix Island international cruise departure port,Tianjin international cruise departure port and Shanghai Wusongkou international cruise departure port,have a wide range of consumption hinterland.Consumption hinterland of cruise departure ports as Shenzhen Taiziwan cruise departure port,Guangzhou Nansha cruise departure port and Xiamen Strait cruise departure port close to the first tier cities and as Qingdao cruise departure port,Haikou cruise departure port and Dalian cruise departure port close to coastal tourism cities is mostly concentrated in their surrounding areas.The scope of consumption hinterlands of Kai Tak cruise terminal in Hong Kong is the smallest due to the influence of the traffic convenience and other factors in the area.The research results can provide reference for the development planning of the cruise departure port.

关 键 词：邮轮旅游 邮轮始发港 消费腹地 腹地划分 断-电模型 聚类分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]