基于贝叶斯理论的供水管道健康状态评价模型研究  

Research on evaluation model of water supply pipeline health status based on bayesian theory

作　　者：陈之敏 李斌[1] 龙志宏 王志红[1] 朱子朋 徐炯基 郭家玮 CHEN Zhimin;LI Bin;LONG Zhihong;WANG Zhihong;ZHU Zipeng;XU Jiongji;GUO Jiawei(School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangzhou Water Supply Com pany,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学土木与交通工程学院,广州510006 [2]广州市自来水有限公司,广州510600

出　　处：《给水排水》2021年第4期137-143,共7页Water & Wastewater Engineering

摘　　要：筛选出完整度和可靠度相对较高的6个供水管道健康影响因素:管径、管材、埋深、管龄、接口方式和水压,进行故障分析和权重分配后,以贝叶斯理论为基础建立模型,对研究区域供水管道进行评价得其健康状态为:健康占14.25%;亚健康占17.91%;脆弱占38.29%;病态占28.95%。根据评价结果,可清晰了解地下供水管道的健康状态,对不同评价等级的供水管道提出不同应对措施,进行合理有序的管理。Six health factors affecting water supply pipelines with relatively high integrity and reliability were selected:pipe diameter,pipe material,burial depth,pipe age,connection method and water pressure.After performing failure analysis and weight distribution,Bayesian theory was used as the Based on the establishment of a model,the health status of the water supply pipeline in the study area is evaluated as:health accounts for 14.25%,sub-health accounts for 17.91%,fragile accounts for 38.29%,morbid accounts for 28.95%.According to the evaluation results,you can clearly understand the health status of the underground water supply pipeline,propose different countermeasures for water supply pipelines of different evaluation levels,and carry out reasonable and orderly management.

关 键 词：健康影响因素 贝叶斯理论 健康状态评价 供水管道 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]