未来气候条件下苹果绵蚜在中国的适生区预测  

Prediction of Suitable Area of Eriosoma lanigerum in China under Future Climate Conditions

作　　者：侯沁文[1] 白海艳[1,2] 李云玲 HOU Qinwen;BAI Haiyan;LI Yunling(Department of Biological Sciences and Technology,Changzhi University,Changzhi 046011,China;Ecological and Environmental Research Institute of Taihang Mountain,Changzhi 046011,China)

机构地区：[1]长治学院生物科学与技术系,山西长治046011 [2]太行山生态与环境研究所,山西长治046011

出　　处：《河南农业科学》2021年第4期106-114,共9页Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山西省“1331工程”重点学科建设经费项目(1331KSC);山西省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2018588)。

摘　　要：苹果绵蚜是我国苹果主产区一种重要的检疫害虫,预测未来气候条件下苹果绵蚜在中国的适生区,以期为苹果绵蚜检疫监管及科学防治工作提供依据。分别利用主成分分析、相关分析和刀切法,对苹果绵蚜294个分布点的20个环境变量进行筛选,获得7个主导变量。以当前气候、2050年情景、2070年情景作为输入变量,分别运行最大熵模型(MaxEnt),模拟苹果绵蚜的适生性。利用ArcGIS软件对最适模拟结果进行分类,获得苹果绵蚜适生区分布图。结果表明,当前气候条件下,苹果绵蚜在中国的适生区主要集中在华北、华东、西南、华中北部、东北南部、西北东部等地区,适生区总面积576.5×10^(4)km^(2),约占我国国土面积的60.1%,其中高适生区面积102.2×10^(4)km^(2),中适生区面积126.7×10^(4)km^(2),低适生区面积347.6×10^(4)km^(2)。对未来(2050年、2070年)适生区进行预测,表明RCP2.6和RCP8.5这2种外排情景下的总适生区均比当前气候的总适生范围小,但高适生区总面积明显增大。RCP2.6情景下2050年的苹果绵蚜高适生区总面积最大,达我国国土面积的12.0%,比当前气候条件下预测面积多13.0×10^(4)km^(2),其中陕西省和河南省区域显著扩增。Eriosoma lanigerum(Homoptera:Aphididae)is an important quarantine pest in the main apple producing areas in China.Predicting of the suitable areas of E.lanigerum in China under future climatic conditions can provide a basis for the quarantine supervision and scientific control of E.lanigerum.In this study,principal component analysis,correlation analysis and Jackknife method were used to screen 20 environmental variables of 294 distribution points of E.lanigerum and 7 dominant variables were obtained.With the current climate,scenario in 2050,and scenario in 2070 as input variables,the maximum entropy model was run to simulate the suitability of E.lanigerum.The ArcGIS software was used to classify the most suitable simulation results,and the distribution map of the suitable areas for E.lanigerum was obtained.The results showed that under current climatic conditions,the suitable areas for E.lanigerum in China were mainly concentrated in North China,East China,Southwest China,north of Central China,south of Northeast China,and east of Northwest China.The total area of suitable areas was 576.5×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for about 60.1%of China’s land area.Among them,the area of highly suitable area was 102.2×10^(4)km^(2),the area of moderately suitable area was 126.7×10^(4)km^(2),and the area of lowly suitable area was 347.6×10^(4)km^(2).The prediction of suitable areas in the future(in 2050 and 2070)showed that the total suitable areas of the two efflux scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were both smaller than the total suitable area under the current climate,but the total area of highly suitable areas increased significantly.Under the RCP2.6 scenario,the total area of highly suitable areas for E.lanigerum in 2050 was the largest,accounting for 12.0%of China’s land area,which was 13.0×10^(4)km^(2)more than the predicted area under current climate.The areas of Shaanxi and Henan provinces would increase significantly.

关 键 词：苹果绵蚜 MaxEnt生态位模型 适生区 预测 AUC值 中国 

分 类 号：S763.30[农业科学—森林保护学]