基于MaxEnt模型和未来气候条件预测太行花属植物的适生分布区  

Prediction of the Distribution of Taihangia in China Based on MaxEnt Model and Climate Change Scenario

作　　者：李安 高萌萌 陈曦 张晓华 李菁博[3] 李良涛 LI An;GAO Mengmeng;CHEN Xi;ZHANG Xiaohua;LI Jingbo;LI Liangtao(College of Landscape and Ecological Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Wuan Forestry Bureau,Wuan 056399,China;Beijing Botanical Garden,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学园林与生态工程学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北武安市林业局,河北武安056399 [3]北京植物园,北京100094

出　　处：《河南农业科学》2021年第4期137-146,共10页Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省研究生创新资助项目(CXZZSS2019074);河北省科技计划项目(6226309D-3)。

摘　　要：为明确太行花属(Taihangia)植物的引种扩繁范围,探明环境因子对于太行花属植物生长的合适阈值,基于MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS地理信息系统模拟太行花属植物当前以及未来气候条件下适生区分布范围。结果显示,太行花属植物的适生区为E112.8°~115.3°、N33.2°~37.8°,其中高适生区面积800 km2,主要分布在河北、河南和山西3个省份的交界处;降水量是主导太行花属植物分布的因素,模型AUC值为0.996,模型拟合效果较好,预测结果可信度高。应密切关注高适生区,并基于此开展适宜的保护繁育工作,未来气候条件下,太行花属植物适生区呈现先增多后减小趋势,建议相关部门及早采取保护措施。In order to clarify the introduction and propagation range of Taihangia,and find the appropriate threshold of environment factors for Taihangia growth,this paper based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS geographic information system simulated the distribution of Taihangia in the current and future climate conditions.The results showed that the suitable areas of Taihangia were roughtly E112.8°—115.3°,N33.2°—37.8°,of which the high suitable area was 800 km2,mainly distributed at the border of three provinces of Hebei,Henan and Shanxi.Precipitation was the main factor that dominated the distribution of Taihangia.The model had an AUC value of 0.996.The model fitted well and the prediction results had high credibility.We should pay close attention to high-suitability areas and carry out appropriate protection and breeding work based on this.In the future climate conditions,the suitable area of Taihangia will increase first and then decrease.It is suggested that relevant departments should take protective measures as soon as possible.

关 键 词：植物分布 太行花属 MAXENT ARCGIS 适生分布区 预测 

分 类 号：S602.1[农业科学—园艺学]