换热器管束的失效概率计算  

FAILURE PROBABILITY CALCULATION OF HEAT EXCHANGER TUBE BUNDLE

作　　者：李志峰[1] 吴建平 王晓博 曾凡梁 Li Zhifeng;Wu Jianping;Wang Xiaobo;Zeng Fanliang(China Special Equipment Inspection&Research Institute,Beijing,100013;SINOPEC-Sk(Wuhan)Petrochemical Company Limited,Wuhan,Hubei,430000)

机构地区：[1]中国特种设备检测研究院,北京100013 [2]中韩(武汉)石油化工有限公司,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《石油化工设备技术》2021年第3期14-19,I0001,I0002,共8页Petrochemical Equipment Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题“承压类特种设备使用管理重要技术标准研究”(课题编号:2017YFF0207101);中韩(武汉)石油化工有限公司内部科研课题“换热器管子损伤检测与评价及预制维修方法研究”(课题编号:ZHSH-18-2S-007)。

摘　　要：在API RP 581-2016和GB/T 26610.4-2014中对换热器管束失效概率的计算都是基于威布尔概率统计方法,但其计算过程有较大区别。出于工程应用的考虑,GB/T 26610.4中威布尔概率统计公式的参数选取较简单,并没有像API RP 581中给出其它的参数选取方式。文章采用威布尔双参数和三参数计算模型对示例换热器管束进行了失效概率计算,同标准计算结果进行对比发现:GB/T 26610.4中的计算方法拟合效果较差。同时提出了基于设计参数确定η参数的取值方法,并将其应用于示例计算,得到了拟合程度近似于GB/T 26610.4中的计算方法,可以用于换热管束失效概率计算。Following API RP 581-2016 and GB/T 26610.4-2014,the failure probability of heat exchanger tube bundle is calculated based on Weibull probability and statistical analysis method,but the calculation process is quite different.Out of consideration for engineering application,the parameter selection of Weibull probability and statistical formula in GB/T 26610.4 is relatively simple,and there is no other parameter selection method as given in API RP 581.In this paper,two-parameter and three-parameter Weibull calculation models are used to calculate the failure probability of the heat exchanger tube bundles.Compared with the standard calculation results,it is found that the fitting degree of the calculation methods in GB/T 26610.4 is poor.Meanwhile,a method to determine the value ofηparameter based on the design parameters is proposed and applied to the calculation of an example.The fitting degree of the method is close to the fitting degree obtained from the calculation method in GB/T 26610.4.And so this method can be used to calculate the failure probability of heat exchanger tube bundles.

关 键 词：失效概率 换热器管束 威布尔概率统计方法 拟合程度 

分 类 号：TE65[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程] TQ051.5[化学工程]