能源消费、出口贸易与经济增长的关系研究——基于PVAR模型对G20的实证分析  

Research on the Relation of Energy Consumption,Export Trade and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis of G20 based on PVAR Model

作　　者：邓文博 庄贝妮[1,3] DENG Wen-bo;ZHUANG Bei-ni(School of Business,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao 999078,China;School of Business Administration,Heyuan Polytechnic,Heyuan Guangdong 517000,China;School of Business Administration,Jimei University,Xiamen Fujian 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]澳门科技大学商学院,中国澳门999078 [2]河源职业技术学院工商管理学院,广东河源517000 [3]集美大学工商管理学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2021年第5期18-22,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：广东省教育科学“十三五”规划高校哲学社会科学专项研究项目(2019GXJK240)。

摘　　要：为了比较发达工业国与新兴工业国能源消费、出口贸易和经济增长之间互动关系的差异,文章把G20组织的19个国家分为发达工业国和新兴工业国,采集了1999—2017年的面板时间序列数据,构建了PVAR模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:发达工业国的出口贸易和经济增长为双向因果关系,出口贸易对经济增长具有长期的促进作用,其能源消费到经济增长具有单向因果关系;新兴工业国具有从出口贸易到经济增长的单向因果关系,出口贸易对经济增长的促进作用不如发达工业国,其出口贸易和能源消费为双向因果关系,新兴工业国的出口贸易对能源消费的依赖度高于发达工业国。In order to compare the interaction between energy consumption,export trade and economic growth between developed and emerging industrial countries,this paper divides G20 into developed and emerging industrial countries,collected panel data from 1999 to 2017,and constructs PVAR model for empirical research.The results show that the export trade and economic growth of developed industrial countries have a two-way causal relationship,and export trade has a long-term promoting effect on economic growth.Their energy consumption has a one-way causal relationship to economic growth.Emerging industrial countries have a one-way causal relationship from export trade to economic growth.Their export trade has a less promoting effect on economic growth than developed industrial countries.Their export trade and energy consumption have a two-way causal relationship.The reason why the energy consumption intensity of the emerging industrial countries is much higher than that of the developed industrial countries is that the developed industrial countries transfer energy consumption through trade.

关 键 词：能源消费 出口贸易 经济增长 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易] F206[经济管理—产业经济]