郑州市短历时强降水变化特征及重现期研究  

Research on Variation Characteristics and Return Periods of Short-time Heavy Precipitation in Zhengzhou

作　　者：左璇[1,2] 朱业玉[1,2] 郭鹏[3,4] 刘善峰[5] Zuo Xuan;Zhu Yeyu;Guo Peng;Liu Shanfeng(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China;Henan Climate Center, Zhengzhou 450003, China;CMA Public Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100081, China;HuaxinTiardi Energy and Meteorological Technology Center, Beijing 100081, China;Henan Electric Power Science Research Institute of National Network, Zhengzhou 450000, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [3]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [4]北京华新天力能源气象科技中心,北京100081 [5]国网河南省电力科学研究院,郑州450000

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2021年第2期25-32,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河南省气象局重点科技攻关项目(Z201501);国家电网公司总部科技项目(52170216000A);国家自然科学基金项目(41305007)。

摘　　要：选取郑州气象站19552018年不同短历时强降水资料,采用频率分析、小波分析和极值分析等方法,揭示了郑州短历时强降水的演变规律,并对各短历时强降水进行了分布拟合检验和重现期估算,以期为城市规划、内涝防范和短历时强降水的预测预警气象服务等提供依据和参考。结果表明:(1)郑州各代表历时强降水年降水量呈现规律性变化特征,从1980s后期至1990s呈明显减小的趋势,1990s到2000s中期则呈显著增加趋势,2000s中期到2013年左右又呈现下降趋势,最近几年又略有增加。各代表历时强降水最大值主要集中在1970s中前期和2000s中后期。(2)不同短历时强降水均存在5~10 a和25 a左右的周期变化特征。较长历时与较短历时强降水相比,在25 a左右上的周期变化特征不明显。(3)广义极值分布(GEV)对郑州短历时强降水的模拟效果要好于其他概率函数分布的模拟结果,较适合于郑州各短历时强降水重现期的拟合。(4)估算的郑州各历时短时强降水不同重现期的降水量与实测资料对比结果表明,重现期估算结果较为可靠,实测各历时最大短时强降水均超过五十年一遇水平,个别超过百年一遇水平。Based on different short-time heavy precipitation data in Zhengzhou during 1955—2018,we analyze the evolution rules of short-time heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou by using methods like frequency analysis,wavelet analysis and extreme value analysis.We also perform the distribution fitting test and estimate the recurrence period so as to offer some references for the city planning,waterlogging prevention and meteorological services of forecasting and early warning on short-time heavy precipitation.The results show that:(1)The annual precipitation amounts of selected short-time heavy precipitation cases in Zhengzhou present the features of regular changes,decreasing obviously from the late 1980s to the end of 1990s,increasing significantly from 1990s to the middle of 2000s,decreasing again from the middle of 2000s to 2013,and increasing slightly again in recent years.The maximum values of short-time heavy precipitation in the selected durations mainly concentrate in the early and middle 1970s and the middle and late 2000s.(2)The short-time severe rainfalls with different durations have periodic characteristics for 5—10 years and around 25 years.And in the 25-year cycle,the longer-duration severe rainfalls do not show clear periodic characteristics compared with the severe rainfall of shorter durations.(3)The Generalized Extreme Value(GEV)distribution fits short-time heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou better than the other probability function distribution,so it is more suitable to the fitting of the return periods of each short-time precipitation in Zhengzhou.(4)Compared to the maximum of observed short-time heavy precipitation,the estimated return-period precipitation in each duration is reliable.All the observed maximum amounts of short-time heavy precipitation in different durations exceed the 50-year level,and some invidual case is over the 100-year level.

关 键 词：郑州 短历时 强降水 变化特征 重现期 

分 类 号：P458.1+21[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]