产品相关性、贸易国关联与中国贸易多元化  

Product Relatedness,Exporter Relatedness,Importer Relatedness and China's Trade Diversification

作　　者：刘林青[1] 陈逸婧 LIU Linqing;CHEN Yijing(Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2021年第2期34-49,共16页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产网络、知识产权保护与中国外贸竞争力提升研究”(15ZDB155);国家自然科学基金面上项目“产品空间视角下中国制造跨越式产业升级路径研究”(71973130)。

摘　　要：从产品空间理论和新经济地理学的角度,基于1995—2017年全球贸易数据,探究出口产品间的相关性、进口国家间关联与出口国家间关联在中国拓展贸易产品和市场范围过程中的影响。研究结果显示,产品相关性、进口国关联度和出口国关联度对中国出口多元化均具有促进作用。进一步分产品类别的检验结果显示,随着产品复杂度的升高,产品相关性对贸易的促进作用越来越弱,在高复杂度的产品中,出口国关联度对贸易扩展产生了相反的抑制效应。从出口贸易的特征分析,可以认为中国当前处在国际分工的相对低端环节,出口结构存在一定缺陷;地理邻近的国家间不仅存在着交流与合作,也存在着竞争和挤出。应当沿着相关性原则推动贸易多元化进程,基于现有产品优化出口结构,以邻为鉴,建立更多贸易关系,提高知识技术密集型产品的出口规模和生产能力,向高端产业转型,始终保持开放的姿态,与世界各国保持对话和交流。The authors used the product space theory and New economic geography theory with global trade data from 1995 to 2017 to explore the influence of the product relatedness,exporter relatedness and importer relatedness on the expansion of China's trade products and market scope.The results show that these three indicators can promote China's trade diversification;China is more likely to increase the export of a product to a destination when it has more product relatedness,exporter relatedness and importer relatedness.The authors explored whether the effects of these forms of relatedness are different for different products.It shows that with the increase of product complexity,the promotion effect of product relatedness on trade becomes weaker;the exporter relatedness has negative effect on trade expansion for products with high complexity.It is concluded that China is at the low end of the international division of labor and the export structure has some defects.There is not only cooperation between neighboring countries,but also the possibility of competition and crowding out.China should promote trade diversification process along the related principle,optimize the export structure through existing products,build more trade partners by learning from neighboring countries,improve technology-intensive products export scale and production capacity,transform to high-end industry,and always keep an open attitude to communicate with countries around the world.

关 键 词：产品相关性 出口国关联 进口国关联 贸易多元化 出口多元化 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]