基于DBN的水下生产系统风险控制分析  

Risk Control Analysis of Subsea Production System Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

作　　者：王魁涛 王红红 尹丰 朱春丽 庞罕[2] WANG Kuitao;WANG Honghong;YIN Feng;ZHU Chunli;PANG Han(CNOOC Research Institute, Beijing 100028,China;China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中海油研究总院有限责任公司,北京100028 [2]中国石油大学(华东),山东青岛266580

出　　处：《石油矿场机械》2021年第3期52-56,共5页Oil Field Equipment

基　　金：工信部高技术船舶项目“水下油气生产系统风险控制分析模型研究”(2018GXB01-02-002)。

摘　　要：针对水下油气生产系统风险控制分析模型建模中的时变问题,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)和安全屏障技术的风险控制分析建模方法。在对水下油气生产系统风险辨识的基础上,以设备元素和屏障措施为网络节点,建立了水下油气生产系统风险控制分析动态贝叶斯网络模型。利用OREDA数据库和历史数据对水下油气生产系统风险控制模型进行分析和评价,结果表明,该建模方法反应了系统风险控制对时间的依赖关系,提高了水下油气生产系统风险分析的动态准确性。According to the time-varying problem in risk control analysis of subsea production system,a risk control model based on dynamic Bayesian network and safety barrier was proposed.After identification of the subsea production system risk,a dynamic bayesian network model was established for risk control analysis with equipment and safety barrier as a net node.The OREDA database and historical data of the equipment were used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the subsea production system,and the results show that the dynamic bayesian network model can simulate the relationship between equipment risk and the time.

关 键 词：水下生产系统 动态贝叶斯网络 风险控制 

分 类 号：TE952[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]