考虑动态热环境因素的潜航员人因可靠性评估  

Human reliability assessment of oceanauts considering dynamic thermal environment

作　　者：张帅 陈登凯[2] 叶聪[3] 初建杰[2] 徐伟哲[3] ZHANG Shuai;CHEN Dengkai;YE Cong;CHU Jianjie;XU Weizhe(Institute of Art and Design,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Shaanxi Engineering Laboratory for Industrial Design,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China;China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi 214082,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学设计艺术学院,长沙410114 [2]西北工业大学陕西省工业设计工程实验室,西安710072 [3]中国船舶科学研究中心,无锡214082

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第4期1071-1080,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0300600);长沙理工大学艺术文化科普宣传基地开放基金项目(2020YSJDA01)。

摘　　要：载人潜水器深海作业属于特殊环境下的高危作业,为具体研究动态热环境下潜航员人因可靠性的变化特征,首先分析载人潜水器舱室人-机-环境特征以及任务过程动态环境变化;随后在认知可靠性与失误分析方法(cognitive reliability and error analysis method,CREAM)的基础上,建立认知失误概率(cognitive failure probabilities,CFP)与工作效率(P)的函数关系,通过引入环境补偿系数(k)构建CFP修正模型;采用热环境舒适性评估与热环境生产力损失归回模型(predicted mean vote-productivity, PMV-P)获取环境补偿系数(k)的量化指标;并通过7000米深海作业任务分析修正前后潜航员CFP的变化特征.结果显示该模型能够描述动态作业环境下潜航员CFP的变化特征,潜水器下潜至4000米阶段舱室热环境对潜航员CFP影响较大.该方法为潜水器优化资源配置、完善系统设计提供理论依据.Deep-sea manned submersible operation is a high-risk operation in special environment.In order to study the variation characteristics of the oceanauts human-factor reliability in dynamic thermal environment,firstly analyzed the human-machine-environment characteristics of manned submersible cabin and the dynamic environment changes of mission process.Then,on the basis of cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM),established the functional relation between cognitive failure probabilities(CFP) and productivity(P),constructed CFP correction model by introducing environmental compensation coefficient(k).Furthermore,obtained quantitative environmental compensation coefficient(k) by predicted mean vote-productivity(PMV-P) method.At last analyzed the change characteristics of CFP for oceanauts through 7000 m deep-sea operation mission.The results shown that the model can describe the changing characteristics of CFP for oceanauts in dynamic operating environment.During the submarine descent to 4000 meters,the thermal environment of the cabin have a great influence on CFP of the oceanauts.This method provided a theoretical basis of optimizing resource allocation and improving system design of submersible.

关 键 词：载人潜水器 认知失误概率(CFP) 预计平均热感觉指数(PMV) 动态环境 人的因素 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]