股票市场发展与经济增长的关系——来自英国的证据  

The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Economic Growth——Evidence from the UK

作　　者：王沫凝 李平 WANG Mo-ning;LI Ping(International Monetary Institute, Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Department of Economics and Management, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际货币研究所,北京100872 [2]山东理工大学经济与管理学部,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《烟台大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第3期104-113,共10页Journal of Yantai University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：股票市场发展与经济增长的相关性是经济增长理论中的重要领域,深入分析二者之间的关系,揭示股票市场对经济增长的作用,是客观认识股票市场在国民经济中的重要地位、维护股票市场健康发展的重要前提。英国是现代金融的发源地,其发展特点值得我们研究学习。2016年的“脱欧”公投给英国金融市场带来重大影响,以此为时间节点,可分段查找经济增长与股票市场发展之间互动影响的前后不同。公投前,英国股市波动与经济增长之间存在双向负因果关系,股市稳定能够促进经济增长,同时经济增长也促进了股市的稳定发展;股市资本化率与经济增长之间仅存在单向因果关系,同时股票实际价值交易比率与经济增长之间没有显著关系。公投后,经济增长与股市规模双向显著正相关,经济增长单向促进股市波动。The correlation between the stock market development and the economic growth is an important field in the theory of economic growth.In order to maintain the stock market development,an in-depth analysis of that correlation,an important prerequisite for understanding the important position of the stock market in the national economy,reveals the impact of stock market development on economic growth.Britain is the birthplace of modern finance,and its development characteristics are worth studying.Taking the Brexit referendum as the time node,which has a significant impact on British financial market in 2016,this paper finds out the differences of interaction between the economic growth and the stock market development.Before the referendum,there was a bidirectional causality between the fluctuation in British stock market and the economic growth,which meant the stability of stock market could promote the economic growth,and vice versa.There was an un-bidirectional causality between the capitalization rate in stock market and the economic growth,and there was no significant causality between the real value of shares traded ratio and the economic growth.After the referendum,a bidirectional positive causality was established between the economic growth and the stock market size,while an un-bidirectional causality was established between the economic growth and the stock market fluctuation.

关 键 词：股票市场发展 经济增长 VAR模型 英国 

分 类 号：F833[经济管理—金融学]