离岛免税政策对海南旅游需求与消费影响研究——基于旅行与免税商品联合购买模型  

A Study on the Effects of Offshore Duty-Free Policy on Hainan Tourism Demand and Consumption:Based on a Joint Purchasing Model

作　　者：左冰[1] 谢梅[1] ZUO Bing;XIE Mei(School of tourism management,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学旅游学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《旅游科学》2021年第2期1-16,共16页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“旅游发展与经济增长关系研究”(16BJY139)。

摘　　要：离岛免税购物政策是促进消费内循环和推动国内国际双循环相互交融的一项战略性税收工具,也是海南建设自由贸易港和国际旅游岛的重要支持政策。科学评估离岛免税政策对旅游需求及旅游消费的影响,具有重要的示范性意义和政策性价值。文章建立了旅行与免税商品联合购买模型,通过分析指出,在其他情况不变的条件下,免税购物政策推动旅游市场发展的有效性取决于目的地单次旅行价格、免税购物配额限制、消费者实际享受到的税收优惠及免税品品类和数量。研究继而采用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)测度了离岛免税政策对海南三亚市和海口市旅游消费和旅游需求增长的净影响,实证结果表明:海南由于旅行价格较高,离岛免税政策实施初期免税额较低,并没有起到激发额外旅游需求的作用。但免税购物带来的收入效应促进了人均旅游消费的增加,提高了海南旅游总收入水平。免税购物政策具有维护国内外经贸往来和经济循环的助推器作用,其效应不仅取决于先行政策本身,也取决于目的地的具体情景及后继政府营造的消费环境。The Offshore Duty-Free Policy(ODP)plays a leading role in accelerating the establishment of a“dual circulation”development pattern for Chinese economy.It is also an important supportive policy that Hainan province applies to build a free trade port and an international tourist island.Hence scientific assessments of its impact on tourism demands and consumptions are of great demonstration significance and policy value.This paper built a joint purchasing model of duty-free goods and tours to explore the boundary condition for policy effectiveness.It was found that with other factors unchanged,the effectiveness of the ODP to promote tourism market depends on:travelling price,tax incentives,the quota limits,as well as the types and quantities of duty-free goods.The study moved on to deploy the propensity score matching-double difference method(PSM-DID)to measure net impacts of ODP on the growth of tourism revenue and tourism arrivals in Sanya and Haikou cities.The empirical results show that due to higher travel prices and lower tax allowance,the implementation of the ODP would fail to stimulate additional tourism demand,but may promote the increase in tourist consumption per capita and the gross tourism revenue.Henceforth,the effect of ODP depends not only on the policy itself,but is also determined by the specific consumption environment of a destination.The authors believe that these findings would provide valuable suggestions for analysing and improving ODP for boosting the domestic-international economic cycle in China effectively.

关 键 词：旅游税收 离境免税政策 联合购买模型 倾向得分匹配-双重差分法 边界条件 双循环 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]