大气低频主振荡模态特征及其在农业防灾中的应用  

The Characteristics of the Atmospheric Low Frequency Principal Oscillation Patterns and Their Application in Agricultural Disaster Prevention

作　　者：刘艳群 刘树锋 赵佩红[2] 于洲 LIU Yan-qun;LIU Shu-feng;ZHAO Pei-hong;YU Zhou(Shaoguan Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Shaoguan 512028,China;Xinhui District Meteorological Bureau of Jiangmen City,Guangdong Province,Jiangmen 529000,China;Zhanjiang Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Zhanjiang 524001,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省韶关市气象局,广东韶关512028 [2]广东省江门市新会区气象局,广东江门529000 [3]广东省湛江市气象局,广东湛江524001

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期261-265,共5页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：大气低频振荡(季节内10~90 d振荡)是全球大气运动的基本特征之一,与洪涝灾害等高影响天气息息相关,影响农业经济发展和人民生命财产安全。本文利用1961~2019年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,采用一阶Butterworth带通滤波、主振荡(POP)分析方法研究了近59年4~8月全球大气低频振荡的主要特征。结果表明,全球大气以10~20 d,30~60 d两个周期带的低频振荡为主,4~8月850 hPa高度层上,全球大气10~20 d低频振荡以南半球绕球遥相关型为主振荡型(SCGT_10~20 d);而30~60 d存在两个低频主振荡型:赤道印度洋和西太平洋地区东传的低频振荡型(IN-WPO_30~60 d)、热带大西洋低频振荡型(TA_30~60 d)。通过对高影响天气发生前各POP型位相循环环流特征的分析,可分析和预测过程发生前后的大气低频振荡特征,为其在农业防灾扛灾上的应用提供一定参考。Atmospheric Intra-seasonal Oscillation(ISO)is one of the basic characteristics of global atmospheric motion,which is closely related to high impact weather such as flood disaster,and affects the development of agricultural economy and the safety of people's lives and property.The characteristics of global atmospheric motion during April to September of 1961 a-2019 a are analyzed statistically based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the modified recursive band-pass filter based on the first–order Butterworth function,the principal oscillation pattern(POP)analysis and composite analysis.The results show that global atmospheric ISO have two main oscillations:10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.Three dominant POP pairs are found when the POP analysis is applied to the 850 hPa geo-potential height:SCGT_10-20 d in 10-20 d oscillation;IN-WPO_30-60 d and TA_30-60 d in 30-60 d oscillation.According to the analysis of the circulation characteristics of POP phase circulation and the characteristics of atmospheric low frequency oscillation before the occurrence of high impact weather will provides a certain indication for its application in agricultural disaster prevention.

关 键 词：大气 低频振荡 农业防灾 

分 类 号：P401[天文地球—大气物理学与大气环境]