定向降准、贷款可得性与小微企业商业信用——基于断点回归的经验证据  

Targeted RRR Cuts,Loan Availability,and the Trade Credit of SMEs:Evidence Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

作　　者：孔东民[1] 李海洋 杨薇 KONG Dongmin;LI Haiyang;YANG Wei(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《金融研究》2021年第3期77-94,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“公司事件、信息优势与投资者交易”(71772178)的资助。

摘　　要：小微企业在我国经济发展中起到了重要作用,但由于长期面临融资约束问题,使其不得不诉诸非正式制度(如商业信用)来缓解融资困难。党的十九届五中全会明确提出,支持小微企业成长为创新重要发源地,完善促进小微企业发展的政策体系。其中,实施“精准滴灌”式的货币政策,对小微企业成长尤为重要,是金融服务实体经济的必然要求。我国央行的定向降准政策激励银行向小微企业提供贷款,有利于疏通小微企业通过正式制度(如银行贷款)进行融资的渠道。本文基于定向降准这一自然实验,采用断点回归设计,评估贷款可得性对小微企业商业信用的影响。研究发现:第一,正式制度对于非正式制度存在明显的替代效应,即小微企业贷款可得性上升以后,对商业信用的需求显著下降。第二,不同的模型设定与稳健性检验,均得到一致的结论。第三,贷款可得性提高对小微企业商业信用的影响因企业异质性而有所差异。本文研究为银行贷款与商业信用之间的替代关系提供了来自中国小微企业的证据,有助于理解定向降准政策对小微企业融资决策的影响,为扶持小微企业发展的政策制定提供参考。The smooth operation,transformation,and upgrade of the Chinese economy inevitably requires the comprehensive development of small and micro enterprises(SMEs).However,financing difficulties have severely restricted the growth of SMEs,causing them to resort to informal channels(such as trade credit)to obtain funds.The Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to support the growth and transformation of SMEs into an important cradle of innovation and to improve policy to promote the development of SMEs.Among these efforts,the implementation of“precise drip irrigation”monetary policy is particularly important for the growth of SMEs and will help to further strengthen the function of financial services in the real economy.To encourage commercial banks and other financial institutions to provide more credit to SMEs and unblock the more formal channels(such as bank loans)through which SMEs can obtain financing,the People's Bank of China,China's central bank,began to implement targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts(TRRRCs)in June 2014.In contrast to traditional“one size fits all”policies,TRRRCs lower the deposit reserve ratio for commercial banks and other financial institutions.This led to new loans to SMEs accounting for more than 50%of all new loans in 2020 in an attempt to incentivize the allocation of credit resources to weak yet important economic sectors such as SMEs.Therefore,TRRRCs are essentially a quantitative easing tool to improve access to finance for SMEs specifically.While many studies have evaluated the effectiveness of TRRRCs,due to data availability and causal identification strategies,there is scant research evaluating the impact of TRRRCs on SMEs'other financing channels,such as trade credit,which is as important as bank loans for SMEs when obtaining funds.TRRRCs exert a significant influence on loan availability for SMEs whose sales fall below specific cutoffs.We can thus employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design(RDD)and use the

关 键 词：定向降准 贷款可得性 小微企业 商业信用 断点回归 

分 类 号：E52[军事—军事理论] G28[文化科学]