传染病数学模型在动物源性传染病疫情预测预警中的应用  

Predicting zoonotic diseases dynamics using mathematic models

作　　者：田怀玉[1] Tian Huaiyu(Center for Global Change and Public Health,College of Global Change and Earth System Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学全球变化与公共健康研究中心,全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,100875

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2021年第4期556-560,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目(Z201100005420010);国家重点研究发展计划(2016YFA0600104);国家自然科学基金面上项目(81673234/82073616);北京市杰出青年科学基金(JQ18025);中国科协青年人才托举工程项目(2018QNRC001);军队后勤科研重大项目;北京高精尖学科“陆地表层学”项目。

摘　　要：病原体在多种宿主间跨种传播是一个复杂的动力学过程,对传染病早期预警系统的可靠性提出严峻挑战。本文通过介绍传染病生态学理论方法,回顾和总结了通过环境-宿主-传染病动态数学模型研究病原体、宿主以及环境的交互作用,量化环境对疫情趋势、传播媒介以及病原微生物影响的研究范式;并以我国姬鼠型肾综合征出血热研究为例,介绍了传染病数学模型在疫情实际预测预警中的应用,进一步发展了新的监测指标与预警方法。The interspecies transmission of pathogens among multiple hosts is a complex dynamic process,which poses a severe challenge to the reliability of the early warning system of zoonotic infectious diseases.By introducing the theories and methods of infectious disease ecology,this paper reviews and summarizes the study of the interaction among pathogens,hosts and environment through the dynamic mathematical model of environment-host-infectious diseases,and also includes research paradigm for quantifying the effects of environment on epidemic trends,vectors and pathogenic microorganisms.Taking the study of Apodemus-type hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,also known as epidemic hemorrhagic fever,in China as an example,the application of mathematical model of infectious diseases in actual prediction and early warning of epidemic situation is introduced,and new monitoring indexes and early warning methods is further developed.

关 键 词：动物传染病 数学 疾病模型 动物 环境-宿主-传染病动态模型 传染病生态学 

分 类 号：O211.6[理学—概率论与数理统计] R181.8[理学—数学]