基于Logistic增长模型的黄龙生物圈保护区游客数量动态分析与预测  

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Tourists in Huanglong Biosphere Reserve Based on Logistic Growth Model

作　　者：何静 徐小凡[2] 唐小惠 王凯[1] HE Jing;XU Xiaofan;TANG Xiaohui;WANG Kai(College of Tourism,Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081,Hunan,China;Sichuan Tourism University, Chengdu 610100, Sichuan, China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙410081 [2]四川旅游学院,四川成都610100

出　　处：《四川旅游学院学报》2021年第3期65-69,75,共6页Journal of Sichuan Tourism University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“旅游扶贫绩效动态评估及稳定脱贫长效机制构建研究”,项目编号:18BJY191;湖南省教育厅重点项目“旅游多维减贫效应评估及贫困陷阱跨越机制构建研究:湖南武陵山片区案例”,项目编号:19A325。

摘　　要：基于黄龙生物圈保护区2001—2019年游客数量,利用Logistic增长模型对其未来三年内的游客数量进行拟合预测。研究表明:(1)实际游客增长趋势与预测曲线的增长趋势基本贴合,但受到自然灾害和政策等因素的影响,局部游客数量实测曲线偏离预测曲线;(2)游客数量在开发初期增长缓慢,到发展期阶段增长速度加快,而后由于黄龙生物圈保护区旅游创新能力不足,旅游吸引力缺乏,从2013年开始,游客总量增加、增长率下降;(3)在排除自然灾害、社会治安、政府行为等外在因素的情况下,黄龙保护区在2020—2023年的理论游客数量总体呈上升态势。For the sustainable development of ecotourism in a biosphere reserve,it is important to analyze and predict the tourist flow in the scenic area,thereby monitoring and protecting the biosphere reserve.Based on the number of tourists from 2001 to 2019 in Huanglong Biosphere Reserve,this paper uses logistic growth model to fit and forecast the number of tourists in the next three years.The results show that:(1)The growth trend of actual tourists is basically consistent with the growth trend of the forecast curve,but affected by natural disasters and policies,the measured curve of local tourists deviates from the predicted curve.(2)The number of tourists increased slowly in the initial stage of development,and then accelerated in the next stage.Since 2013,the total number of tourists has been increasing,though the growth rate is lower than before.(3)Without considering external factors like natural disasters,social security and government behavior,it is estimated that the number of theoretical tourists in Huanglong Biosphere Reserve is expected to increase in the next three years.

关 键 词：黄龙生物圈保护区 生态旅游 游客数量 LOGISTIC增长模型 游客预测 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]