1951—2017年松花江流域连续性极端降水事件时间趋势特征分析  

Time Trend Analysis of Continuous Extreme Precipitation Events in Songhua River Basin from 1951 to 2017

作　　者：蔡文香[1] 卢万合[2] 于国强[2] 刘家福[2] CAI Wen-xiang;LU Wan-he;YU Guo-qiang;LIU Jia-fu(School of Mathematics,Jilin Normal University,Siping 136000,China;School of Tourism Management and Geography,Jilin Normal University,Siping 136000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学数学与统计学院,四平136000 [2]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,四平136000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第10期3887-3893,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41977411);吉林师范大学博士启动基金(2016001)。

摘　　要：连续性极端降水事件是松花江流域洪涝灾害的重要原因。基于1951—2017年松花江流域41个气象站点降水数据,采用泊松回归方法进行时间趋势分析。结果表明:松花江流域连续性极端降水事件在第90百分位阈值下、第99百分位阈值下一次回归结果显著,呈现增加趋势,指数化系数为1.006 841、1.037 159;3个子流域在不同百分比阈值下通过检验,均呈现出增加趋势,松花江干流流域在第99百分位阈值下一次回归结果显著,指数化系数为1.050 931,嫩江流域在第90百分位阈值下、第95百分位阈值下一次回归结果显著,指数化系数为1.005 018 623 3、1.005 841 336 5,第二松花江流域在第95百分位阈值下一次回归结果显著,指数化系数为1.007 653;各站点回归结果差异较大,第90百分位阈值下9个站点通过检验,趋势特征为:4个站点增加,4个站点减少,1个站点先减少后增加,第95百分位阈值下7个站点通过检验,趋势特征为:2个站点增加,3个站点减少,1个站点先减少后增加,1个站点先增加后减少,第99百分位阈值下仅有1个站点通过检验,呈现增加的趋势。Continuous extreme precipitation event is an important reason for the flood disaster in Songhua River Basin. Based on the precipitation data of 41 meteorological stations in the Songhua River Basin from 1951 to 2017, the Poisson regression method was used to analyze the time trend. The results show that the regression results of Songhua River Basin under the 90 th percentile threshold and the 99 th percentile threshold are significant with an increasing trend, and the indexation coefficient is 1.006 841 and 1.037 159. Three sub basins pass the test under different percentile thresholds, showing an increasing trend. The main stream basin of Songhua River has a significant regression results under the 99 th percentile threshold, and the indexation coefficient is 1.050 931. The regression results of Nenjiang River Basin under the 90 th percentile threshold and 95 th percentile threshold are significant, the indexation coefficient is 1.005 018 623 3 and 1.005 841 336 5. The regression results of the second Songhua River Basin under the 95 th percentile threshold are significant, its indexation coefficient is 1.007 653. The regression results of each station are significant, and 9 stations under the 90 th percentile threshold pass the test, and the trend feature is 4 sites increased, 4 sites, 1 site decreased first and then increased. 7 sites passed the test under the 95 th percentile threshold are with the trend feature of 2 sites increased, 3 sites decreased, 1 site decreased first and then increased, 1 site increased and then decreased. Only 1 site passed the test under the 99 th percentile threshold with an increasing trend.

关 键 词：连续性极端降水事件 松花江流域 时间趋势 泊松回归 

分 类 号：P468.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]