西北干旱区融雪洪水灾害预报预警技术:进展与展望  

Progress and Issues on Key Technologies in Forecasting of Snowmelt Flood Disaster in Arid Areas,Northwest China

作　　者：陈仁升 沈永平 毛炜峄[2] 张世强 吕海深[4] 刘永强[5] 刘章文 房世峰[6] 张伟 陈春艳 韩春坛 刘俊峰 赵求东 郝晓华 李如琦 秦艳[5] 黄维东 赵成先[9] 王书峰 CHEN Rensheng;SHEN Yongping;MAO Weiyi;ZHANG Shiqiang;Lü Haishen;LIU Yongqiang;LIU Zhangwen;FANG Shifeng;ZHANG Wei;CHEN Chunyan;HAN Chuntan;LIU Junfeng;ZHAO Qiudong;HAO Xiaohua;LI Ruqi;QIN Yan;HUANG Weidong;ZHAO Chengxian;WANG Shufeng(Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830000,China;Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000,China;Xinjiang Irtysh River Basin Development and Construction Management Bureau,Urumqi 830000,China;Altay Hydrological Survey Bureau,Altay Xinjiang 836300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [3]西北大学,陕西西安710127 [4]河海大学,江苏南京210098 [5]新疆大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [6]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [7]新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [8]甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730000 [9]新疆额尔齐斯河流域开发工程建设管理局,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [10]阿勒泰水文勘测局,新疆阿勒泰836300

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2021年第3期233-244,共12页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“干旱区融雪洪水灾害监测预报和防控关键技术研究与示范”(编号:2019YFC1510500);国家自然科学基金重大项目“冰冻圈水资源服务功能研究”(编号:41690141)资助。

摘　　要：针对全球变化背景下极端升温、暴雪和雪面雨等事件增多以及我国西北干旱区融雪洪水灾害风险增大问题,简要概述了干旱区融雪洪水预报预警系统及其关键技术的研究进展,重点阐述了近年来发生频率增加、灾害风险大,但在干旱区未引起重视的雪面雨洪水的研究进展,提出了西北干旱区融雪洪水高精度预报预警所面临的关键科学问题,指出需在揭示干旱区融雪洪水灾害致灾机理、成灾机制及其演化规律基础上,研发干旱区融雪洪水灾害监测预警装置并构建立体监测体系,研究雨雪冰混合洪水形成及演进过程并建立模型,构建洪水风险评估指标体系,建成干旱区融雪洪水智能化预报预警决策支持平台,动态展示流域实时、潜在及未来超标准融雪洪水的淹没范围,评估风险程度,并提出防洪技术和工程方案以及洪水资源化利用途径等应对措施。Under the global warming,the extreme warming process,heavy snowfall and Rain-On-Snow event occur more frequently,resulting in more frequent snowmelt floods,and the rain,snow and ice mixed floods. Therefore,the projection,prediction,forecasting and early warning of the flood disasters are urgently needed in the arid regions of northwest China. According to the present research progress on key technologies of snowmelt flood disaster forecasting,it is necessary to reveal the mechanism of flood disasters,develop the monitoring and early warning device of snowmelt flood disasters,and then construct the three-dimensional monitoring system in arid areas. Based on the in situ,remote observation and involved research results,a hydrological model should be developed to accurately simulate the rain,snow and ice mixed floods. Therefore,an Intelligent Decision Support System(IDSS)should be constructed to demonstrate the flood submerged areas,evaluate the risk of the flood disasters and give the best solutions in the arid regions of northwest China.

关 键 词：极端升温过程 雪面雨 雨雪冰混合洪水 预报预警 智能化决策支持系统 洪水资源化 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]