我国流通中现金(M0)的“假日效应”研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证分析  

A Study on the“Holiday Effect”of Cash in Circulation(M0)in China:An Empirical Analysis based on TVP-VAR Model

作　　者：周陈曦[1] ZHOU Chen-xi(Nanchang Central Sub-branch of the People's Bank of China,Nanchang,Jiangxi,330008,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南昌中心支行,江西南昌330008

出　　处：《凯里学院学报》2021年第2期84-91,共8页Journal of Kaili University

摘　　要：随着社会经济的发展,现金支付已由各面额、全券别支付向零星、小面额支付集中,现金使用场景已由生产生活全场景向局部、个别场景集中,现金流通时间已由全年度各个时段向某些季节性、时期性等特殊时段集中。研究表明,不少居民都选择在假日期间开展旅游、购物等活动,居民的假期经济活动与现金流通特征存在高度的时空重合,流通中现金(M0)的“假日效应”显著。With the development of social economy,the cash payment has been transformed from various denominations and full coupons to sporadic and small denomination payment;the scene of cash use has transformed from the whole production and living scene to the local and individual scene;and the cash circulation time has been transformed from each period of the whole year to some special periods such as seasonality and periodicity.The research show that many residents prefer to carry out tourism,shopping and other activities during the holiday period.There is a high degree of space-time coincidence between the holiday economic activities of residents and the characteristics of cash flow,and the“holiday effect”of cash in circulation(M0)is significant.

关 键 词：流通中现金 假日效应 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]