基于随机维纳过程的结构损伤寿命预测与可靠性评估方法  

Structural Damage Life Prediction and Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Stochastic Wiener Process

作　　者：陈志军 李海波[1] 胡彦平[1] CHEN Zhi-jun;LI Hai-bo;HU Yan-ping(Beijing Institute of Structure and Environment Engineering,Beijing 100076,China)

机构地区：[1]北京强度环境研究所,北京100076

出　　处：《南昌航空大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第1期14-21,共8页Journal of Nanchang Hangkong University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：预研共用技术项目(41402010101);预研领域基金(61400020302);航天科技一院技术创新基金(JSCX2019)。

摘　　要：提出了一种基于随机维纳过程的结构损伤寿命预测与可靠性评估方法。首先,利用随机维纳过程对产品进行性能退化建模与寿命预测模型建立;其次,利用性能退化试验数据,通过参数无偏估计方法结合最小二乘原理计算得出模型参数的估计;然后利用建立的模型对产品进行寿命预测与可靠性评估;最终以某齿轮为实例,验证了所提出的方法的适用性和有效性。This paper presents a method of structural damage life prediction and reliability evaluation based on stochastic Wiener process.Firstly,the random Wiener process is used to build the performance degradation model and life prediction model of the product;secondly,the parameters of the model are estimated by the unbiased parameter estimation method combined with the least square principle based on the performance degradation test data;then the life prediction and reliability evaluation of the product are carried out by the established model;finally,a gear is taken as an example to verify the proposed model applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：随机维纳过程 性能退化建模 无偏估计 最小二乘原理 寿命预测 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]