湖南省“四机一脑”家用电器报废量预测——基于改进型消费使用模型分析  

Forecast of the scrap quantity of household appliances"four machines and computer"in Hunan province——Analysis based onimproved consumer usage model

作　　者：刘永清[1] 许欣 丁文彬[1] LIU Yong-qing;XU Xin;DING Wen-bin(School of Business,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第1期117-126,共10页Journal of Xiangtan University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：湖南省社科基金重点项目(18ZDB012);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(17A076);湖南省社科基金青年项目(19YBQ049);国家社科基金项目(17BGL057)。

摘　　要：家用电器电子产品在家庭生活中已占据了不可或缺的一部分,也产生了大量的电子垃圾.文章通过问卷调查,对湖南省家用电器的拥有量、报废年限、废旧家电回收等进行了调查,掌握了目前湖南省废旧家电的回收现状.并选取改进型消费使用模型对湖南省五类主要家电报废量进行了预测.结果显示:在未来近十年内,五大家电将相继进入报废高峰期,但进入报废高峰期的顺序有所不同;农村居民的电冰箱、电视机报废量以较快速度增长,逐渐与城镇持平;无论是农村还是城镇,空调、电脑报废量激增的年份会稍晚.Household appliances and electronic products have occupied an indispensable part in family life,and also produce a large amount of electronic waste.In this paper,through the questionnaire survey,the ownership of household appliances in Hunan province,discarded,the recycling of waste household appliances and so on has carried on the investigation,to master the current status of recycling of waste household appliances in Hunan province.In addition,an improved consumption model is selected to predict the scrap quantity of five kinds of main household appliances in Hunan province.The results show that the five major household appliances will enter the scrap peak period one after another in the next ten years,but the order is different.The scrap quantity of refrigerators and TV sets of rural residents increased at a fast speed and gradually reached the level with that of urban.Whether in rural or urban areas,air conditioning,computer scrap surge year will be late.

关 键 词：家用电器 改进型消费使用模型 报废量预测 湖南省 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F207[经济管理—国民经济]