气候变化背景下濒危植物梓叶槭在中国适生分布区预测  

Prediction of suitable distribution area of the endangered plant Acer catalpifolium under the background of climate change in China

作　　者：黄睿智 于涛 赵辉[2] 张声凯 景洋 李俊清[1] Huang Ruizhi;Yu Tao;Zhao Hui;Zhang Shengkai;Jing Yang;Li Junqing(Beijing Key Laboratory of Forest Resources Ecosystem Process,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Henan Academy of Forestry Sciences,Zhengzhou 450008,Henan,China;Comprehensive Agricultural Service Center of Daliuxing Town,Penglai City,Yantai 265615,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学森林资源生态系统过程北京市重点实验室,北京100083 [2]河南省林业科学研究院,河南郑州450008 [3]蓬莱市大柳行镇农业综合服务中心,山东烟台265615

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2021年第5期33-43,共11页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503106);国家林业和草原局委托项目(2019073051)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析极小种群濒危植物梓叶槭在中国当代和未来的潜在分布区,揭示未来气候变化条件下梓叶槭的分布动态。【方法】以梓叶槭为研究对象,基于现有的梓叶槭分布位点、气候数据集和海拔数据,利用优化的MaxEnt模型和GIS技术,模拟当前、2050s(2041-2060年)和2090s(2081-2100年)(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)气候情景下梓叶槭的分布格局,划分适生等级,采用受试者工作曲线(ROC)下的面积(AUC),评价模拟的精度。以刀切法分析气候变量贡献率,找出制约梓叶槭分布的主导气候变量。基于分布面积比(N_a)、生境变化程度(N_e)比较梓叶槭在不同气候条件下的地理分布动态。【结果】梓叶槭主要适生区分布在我国西南地区,9种气候情景下训练集与测试集AUC值均大于0.995,表明模型模拟精度极高。最暖季降雨量、温度季节性变化标准差、海拔贡献率最高,分别为56.1%、18.2%和10.9%。【结论】气候变化背景下梓叶槭将丧失大量高适生区,生境破碎化趋势严重,中高强度排放情景SSP370对梓叶槭潜在分布区影响较小。本研究可为濒危物种梓叶槭的就地与迁地保护提供依据。[Objective]This paper aims to analyze the potential distribution areas of extremely small population of endangered plant Acer catalpifolium in China today and in the future,reveal the distribution dynamics of A.catalpifolium under future climate change.[Method]Taking A.catalpifolium as the research object,based on the existing A.catalpifolium distribution sites,climate data and altitude data,using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to simulate the current,2050 s(2041-2060)and 2090 s(2081-2100)(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585)distribution pattern of A.catalpifolium under climate scenarios,classify the fitness level and use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)(AUC)to evaluate the accuracy of simulation,analyze the contribution rate of climate variables with the knife-cut method to find out the dominant climate variables that restrict the distribution of A.catalpifolium;compare the geographic distribution of A.catalpifolium under different climatic conditions based on the distribution area ratio(N_a)and the degree of habitat change(N_e)dynamic.[Result]The main suitable areas for A.catalpifolium were distributed in southwestern China.The AUC values of the training set and the test set under the nine climatic scenarios were both greater than 0.995,indicating that the model simulation accuracy was extremely high.The warmest season rainfall,temperature seasonal variation standard deviation and altitude had the highest contribution rates,which were 56.1%,18.2%and 10.9%,respectively.[Conclusion]Under the background of climate change,A.catalpifolium will lose a large number of highly suitable areas,and the habitat fragmentation will be more serious than the trend.The medium-to-high intensity emission scenario SSP370 has little impact on the potential distribution area of A.catalpifolium.This study can provide a basis for the in-situ and ex-situ conservation of the endangered species of A.catalpifolium.

关 键 词：梓叶槭 MAXENT 潜在分布区 气候因子 

分 类 号：S792.35[农业科学—林木遗传育种] S717.2/.7[农业科学—林学]