基于统计学的中国典型大城市CO2排放达峰研究  

Study on peak CO emissions of typical large cities in China

作　　者：蒋含颖 段祎然 张哲 曹丽斌 徐少东 张立 蔡博峰 JIANG Han-Ying;DUAN Yi-Ran;ZHANG Zhe;CAO Li-Bin;XU Shao-Dong;ZHANG Li;CAI Bo-Feng(School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100091,China;China-UK Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Center for Climate Change and Environmental Policy,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China;School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100091 [2]上海交通大学中英国际低碳学院,上海200240 [3]生态环境部环境规划院气候变化与环境政策研究中心,北京100012 [4]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第2期131-139,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“基于排放情景-空气质量模型的中国城市‘双达’评估方法研究”(72074154)。

摘　　要：对选取的36个中国典型大城市,分析2005—2019年直接CO2排放与总CO2排放特征,构建基于条件判断函数和Mann-Kendall趋势分析检验法的城市CO2排放达峰判断模型,判断36个城市排放是否达峰,并对达峰城市特征和处于不同排放阶段的典例城市进行深入分析。结果表明,36个典型大城市中,昆明、深圳与武汉3个城市已达峰,8个城市处于平台期,其余25个城市综合来看尚未达峰。建议未达峰城市根据自身特点借鉴已达峰城市经验,调整产业结构与能源结构,降低碳排放强度,加强碳排放与经济增长的脱钩,尽早实现达峰。The urban CO2 emission peak judgment model based on the conditional judgment function and Mann-Kendall trend analysis test method was constructed to analyze their direct CO2 emissions and total CO2 emissions characteristics in the 36 typical large cities of China from 2005 to 2019, and determine whether the comprehensive CO2 emissions of each city have reached its peaks. In-depth analysis on the characteristics of typical cities at different emission stages was also conducted. The results show that among the 36 typical large cities, Kunming, Shenzhen and Wuhan have reached their peaks, 8 cities are in the plateau period, and the remaining 25 cities have not reached their peaks comprehensively. It is recommended that cities that have not reached the peak of CO2 emissions should learn the experience from the city that have reached the peak according to their own characteristics, such as adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure, reducing the intensity of carbon emissions, and strengthening the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth, so as to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible.

关 键 词：达峰 典型城市 CO2排放 MANN-KENDALL检验 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]