智能互联重塑中国能源体系  

Research on intelligent interconnection reshaping China’s energy system

作　　者：王利宁 陈文颖[2] 戴家权 向征艰 龚金双 WANG Li-Ning;CHEN Wen-Ying;DAI Jia-Quan;XIANG Zheng-Jian;GONG Jin-Shuang(CNPC Economics&Technology Research Institute,Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast,CNPC,Beijing 100724,China;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油经济技术研究院中国石油油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室,北京100724 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第2期204-211,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：中国石油集团《世界与中国能源展望研究》项目;国家自然科学基金(71690243)。

摘　　要：随着第五代移动通信(5G)技术的突破、推广与应用,世界逐渐进入智能互联时代。在此背景下,本研究以能源系统分析模型(GCAM)为基础,设计和模拟基准与智能互联情景,探索在智能互联技术加快突破的情况下我国能源转型发展道路。研究发现,与基准情景比较,智能互联情景下能源结构更加清洁,能源系统更加高效,2050年一次能源消费量下降6.2%;数字化、智能化技术使用将显著提升终端部门电气化水平,2050年达48.1%,较基准情景提高9.6个百分点;储能技术、智能电网、分布式用能体系将促进可再生能源开发应用规模加速增长,2050年可再生能源发电占比将达到60.0%,较基准情景提高13.3个百分点;我国绿色低碳、安全高效的能源体系更早形成,碳排放在达峰后将快速下降,2050年仅为56.0亿t,较2018年下降41.8%,为全球应对气候变化做出更大贡献。With the breakthrough, promotion and application of the fifth-generation mobile communication(5G) technology, the world is gradually entering the era of intelligent interconnection. Based on an energy system analysis model(GCAM), the baseline and intelligent interconnection scenarios were designed and simulated, and the development path of China’s energy transformation was explored under the circumstance that the breakthrough of intelligent interconnection technology is accelerated. Results show that compared with the baseline scenario, the energy system is more efficient under the intelligent interconnection scenario, indicating that the primary energy consumption would be 6.2% lower in 2050;the use of digital and intelligent technology will greatly improve the electrification level of final energy use, which would be 9.6 percentage points higher than that in baseline scenario;energy storage technology, smart grid and distributed energy system will accelerate the development and application of renewable energy, the percentage of which in power generation would be 13.3 percentage points higher than that in baseline scenario;China’s green, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system will be built earlier, and carbon emissions would drop rapidly after reaching their peak, being 5.6 Gt in 2050(decreasing by 41.8% compared with 2018), making greater contribution to the global response to climate change.

关 键 词：智能互联 能源转型 能源系统分析模型 碳排放 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]