基于成本重构的化学驱油项目效益后评价方法及应用  

Post-project evaluation of chemical flooding projects based on cost reconstruction and its application

作　　者：肖武[1] 邴绍献[1] 赵小军[1] 张明安 杨鹏鹏[2] XIAO Wu;BING Shaoxian;ZHAO Xiaojun;ZHANG Ming’an;YANG Pengpeng(Exploration and Development Research Institute,Shengli Oilfield Company,SINOPEC,Dongying City,Shandong Province,257015,China;Chinese and Foreign Energy Enterprises Research Institute,Xi’an International Studies University,Xi’an City,Shaanxi Province,710128,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化胜利油田分公司勘探开发研究院,山东东营257015 [2]西安外国语大学能源企业研究所,陕西西安710128

出　　处：《油气地质与采收率》2021年第3期96-103,共8页Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency

基　　金：中国石化科技攻关项目“老油田潜力评价与规划优化方法研究及应用”(P20070-3)。

摘　　要：低油价下化学驱油项目能否大规模效益开发存在较大争议,为此针对已实施项目开展了效益后评价分析,评价结果是否合理的关键是成本取值问题。按照评价起始年成本水平,建立不同成本要素和开发指标关系,重新计算已实施项目的历史成本,再根据开发规律对未来成本进行预测,实现项目全周期成本重构,在此基础上构建了化学驱油项目效益后评价方法,并对已实施部分化学驱油项目进行了效益后评价。评价结果表明,低油价下化学驱油项目能够取得较好的经济效益,吨油成本比相同含水率的水驱单元下降了10%~20%,油价为40美元/bbl时的化学驱油项目吨聚增油量经济界限约为15 t/t,胜利油田满足该条件的化学驱资源潜力较大,低油价下化学驱仍具有较大推广前景;进一步分析表明,油价波动对化学驱油项目的效益影响较小,通过优化药剂用量、延长见效高峰期能够显著提高项目效益。Whether chemical flooding projects can gain large-scale benefits at low oil prices is under heated discussion.For this reason,post-project evaluation has been carried out for some implemented projects,and the key to reasonable eval⁃uation results is the cost value.According to the cost level in the starting year of evaluation,the relationship between cost elements and development indicators is established to recalculate the historical cost of the projects.Then,in light of the de⁃velopment law,future cost is predicted to reconstruct the life cycle cost of the projects.On this basis,a post-project evalua⁃tion method for chemical flooding projects is proposed for some chemical flooding projects that have been implemented.Re⁃sults show that chemical flooding projects can get very good economic benefits at low oil prices,and the cost per ton of oil is 10%-20%lower than that of water flooding units with the same water cut.In addition,when the oil price is 40$/bbl,the economic limit on oil increment per ton of polymer for chemical flooding projects is about 15 t/t.The chemical flooding re⁃sources that meet this requirement in Shengli Oilfield have great potential,and chemical flooding at low oil prices still has great prospects of promotion.Further analysis indicates that the fluctuation in oil prices has little impact on the benefits of chemical flooding projects,and their benefits can be significantly improved by optimizing the dosage of reagents and extend⁃ing their peak periods of working.

关 键 词：化学驱油 成本重构 全周期 效益后评价 低油价 

分 类 号：TE322[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]