基于AHP-CF模型的地质灾害易发性评价——以泰顺县仕阳镇为例  

Evaluation of geological hazard vulnerability based on AHP-CF model:Take Shiyang Town of Taishun County as an example

作　　者：赵阳 倪化勇[2] 伍剑波[2] 孙强[2] 张泰丽[2] 刘明军[4,5] ZHAO Yang;NI Huayong;WU Jianbo;SUN Qiang;ZHANG Taili;LIU Mingjun(Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China;Nanjing Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu,China;China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China;Taishun Bureau of Natural Resources and Planing, Taishun 325500, Zhejiang, China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院,北京100037 [2]中国地质调查局南京地质调查中心,江苏南京210016 [3]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [4]中国地质大学(武汉),湖北武汉430074 [5]泰顺县自然资源和规划局,浙江温州325500

出　　处：《华东地质》2021年第1期66-75,共10页East China Geology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“超渗产流径流侵蚀对冲沟型泥石流形成的驱动效应及过程模拟(编号:41572294)”、中国地质调查局“浙江丽水地区灾害地质调查(编号:DD20190648)”和“浙江飞云江流域地质灾害调查(编号:DD20160282)”项目联合资助。

摘　　要：东南沿海地区常年受台风暴雨袭扰,地质灾害频发。以泰顺县仕阳镇为研究区,综合考虑台风暴雨型地质灾害成灾机理,从地形条件、地质条件、人类工程活动3个方面,选取坡度、坡向、坡形、地形起伏度、断层、工程地质岩组、松散层厚度、土地开发强度和公路切坡9个影响因子,基于ArcGIS斜坡单元数据模型,耦合确定性系数(CF)与层次分析模型(AHP)对乡镇尺度的小面域进行地质灾害易发性评价。根据耦合模型的评价结果,将仕阳镇地质灾害易发性等级分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区和低易发区4个级别,并利用地质灾害点在各易发等级下的分布和成功率曲线对耦合模型的评价精度进行检验。经检验,认为耦合模型的评价分区结果合理,评价精度为84.6%。Southeast coastal areas are affected by typhoon rainstorms throughout the years,which resulting in frequent geological disasters.Take Shiyang Town,Taishun County as the research area,this paper considered the formation mechanism of typhoon rainstorm geological hazard comprehensively.Also,nine influencing factors,including slope,aspect,slope shape,topographic relief,fault,engineering geological rock formation,loose layer thickness,land development intensity and highway cut slopes were selected from the aspects of topographical conditions,geological conditions and human engineering activities to evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazard in a small area at the township scale based on the ArcGIS slope unit data model,coupling certainty coefficient(CF)and analytic hierarchy model(AHP).Moreover,Shiyang Town was divided into extremely susceptible area,susceptible area,mildly susceptible area and low susceptible area in line with the susceptibility of geological hazard according to the evaluation result of the coupling model.The evaluation accuracy of the coupling model was also tested using the distribution and success rate curves of various geographic disaster points under different susceptibilities.The result shows that the evaluate division of the coupling model is reasonable with the evaluation,and the evaluation accuracy is 84.6%.

关 键 词：地质灾害 易发性评价 AHP-CF模型 台风暴雨 仕阳镇 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]