含气候效应的湖南杉木人工林断面积生长模型  

Basal area growth model of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation in Hunan province with climate effect

作　　者：齐战涛 朱光玉[1] 许冰冰 刘洪娜 吕勇[1] QI Zhantao;ZHU Guangyu;XU Bingbing;LIU Hongna;LYU Yong(College of Forestry,Central South University of Forestry&Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学林学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2021年第5期66-73,共8页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31570631);国家林业和草原局青年拔尖人才项目(2019132605);湖南省教育厅一般项目(18C0277)。

摘　　要：【目的】气候对林分的影响不可忽视,但以往林分生长模型的构建大都假定气候不变,无法考虑气候变化下的林分生长。构建含气候效应的杉木断面积模型,可为森林经营者在气候影响下采取合理的杉木经营措施提供理论依据。【方法】基于湖南省638块杉木人工林样地调查数据,从4个具有生物学意义的备选林分断面积模型中选出最优基础模型,使用多元逐步回归分析筛选无严重共线性且显著的气候因子,运用混合模型将各显著气候因子作为随机效应添加至基础模型,确定最优随机效应添加形式,进而构建含气候效应的杉木人工林断面积生长模型。【结果】Richards式为林分断面积生长基础模型的最优形式,其调整决定系数(Ra 2)为0.8355;夏季均最高温(T_(max)、哈格里夫斯气候水汽亏损(C_(MD))分别影响杉木林分断面积生长的最大值与速率,且均与断面积生长呈负相关;含气候效应的杉木林分断面积模型调整决定系数(R_(a)^(2))为0.8921,均方根误差(RMSE)为3.0792,平均相对误差绝对值(MARE)为9.9011;相比最优基础模型,R_(a)^(2)提升了6.77%,RMSE降低了19.04%,MARE降低了15.95%。【结论】含气候效应的林分断面积模型的构建说明气候对林分生长的影响显著,为生长模型中考虑气候因子的合理性提供了支撑,其在提高模型精度与适用性的同时,对杉木区域性林分生长收获与经营管理也具有重要意义。【Objective】The influence of climate on stand growth cannot be ignored,but most of the previous stand growth models assumed that climate was unchanged,so the stand growth under climate change could not be considered.The establishment of the broken area model of Chinese fir with climate effect can provide a theoretical basis for the management measures of Chinese fir taken by forest managers under the influence of climate.【Method】Based on 638 pieces of Chinese fir plantation sample survey data of Hunan province,from four of the biological significance of optional choose the optimal model of stand basal area based model,use multiple stepwise regression analysis to screen no serious collinearity and significant climate factor,using hybrid model will be the significant climate factors as random effects added to the base model,to determine the optimal random effects add form,and then build including climatic effects of Chinese fir plantation area of growth model.【Result】Richards formula is the optimal form of the basic model of stand basal area growth,and its adjusted determination coefficient(R_(a)^(2))is 0.8355.The maximum temperature in summer(T_(max))and Hargreaves water vapor deficit(C_(MD))affected the maximum and rate of the growth of stand basal area of Chinese fir,and both of them were negatively correlated.The adjustment and determination coefficient(R_(a)^(2))of stand basal area including climate effect is 0.8921,root mean square error(RMSE)is 3.0792,and average absolute value of relative error(MARE)is 9.9011.Compared with the optimal base model,R_(a)^(2)was improved by 6.77%,RMSE by 19.04%and MARE by 15.95%.【Conclusion】The establishment of the stand basal area model with climate effect indicates that climate has significant influence on stand growth,which provides support for the rationality of considering climate factor in the growth model.It not only improves the accuracy and applicability of the model,but also has important significance for the growth and harvest and management of regiona

关 键 词：杉木人工林 气候因子 林分断面积生长模型 混合效应模型 

分 类 号：S791.27[农业科学—林木遗传育种]