基于贝叶斯网络的玻璃幕墙运维安全风险分析  

Security Risk Analysis of Glass Curtain Wall Operation and Maintenance Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：刘禹辰 LIU Yu-chen(Shanghai Jianke Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200032,China)

机构地区：[1]上海建科工程咨询有限公司,上海200032

出　　处：《价值工程》2021年第12期145-147,共3页Value Engineering

基　　金：“十三五”国家科技支撑课题“城镇建筑结构运维安全保障关键技术”(2017YFC0806100)。

摘　　要：玻璃幕墙安全风险随着其使用年限的增加而愈加突出,为了预防和减少玻璃幕墙运维安全风险及事故损失,本文对玻璃幕墙面板破碎、胶合材料失效和固定支撑件破坏等各类安全风险进行系统分析,并结合经验对风险因素之间逻辑关系进行补充修正,构建贝叶斯网络,运用贝叶斯网络的不确定性推理理论,预测玻璃幕墙运维安全风险的发生概率,并反向诊断出玻璃幕墙运维事故的关键致险因素,以便能够快速实现风险监测及事故排查。The safety risk of glass curtain wall is becoming more and more prominent with the increase of its service life.In order to prevent and reduce the safety risk and accident loss of glass curtain wall operation and maintenance,this paper systematically analyzes the various safety risks of glass curtain wall panel crushing,adhesive material failure and fixed support failure.Combined with experience,the logical relationship between risk factors is supplemented and corrected,and the Bayesian network is constructed.The uncertainty reasoning theory of Bayesian network is used to predict the probability of safety risk of glass curtain wall operation and maintenance,and the key risk factors of glass curtain wall operation and maintenance accidents are reversely diagnosed,so as to quickly realize risk monitoring and accident investigation.

关 键 词：玻璃幕墙 运维安全 贝叶斯网络 风险分析 

分 类 号：TP309[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]