CART决策树方法在煤电厂节能降耗中的应用  

Application of CART decision tree model in reducing coal consumption in coal power plant

作　　者：张俊玉[1] 胡家豪 黄嵩[2] ZHANG Jun-yu;HU Jia-hao;HUANG Song(School of Mathematics,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;School of Software&Microelectronics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学数学学院,广州510275 [2]北京大学软件与微电子学院,北京100871

出　　处：《控制与决策》2021年第5期1232-1238,共7页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61673019)。

摘　　要：煤电是我国电力的主要来源,燃煤发电煤耗高,所以降低发电厂的煤耗,是非常重要且亟待解决的问题.利用热力设备的大量监控数据,提出利用CART决策树方法以及CART决策树与关联规则相结合的改进方法,寻求不同工况下能降低单位煤耗的关键可控变量及其参数调节范围.相比传统的用于寻找降耗调节方式的关联规则算法, CART决策树方法无论在计算效率还是优化效果方面都具有一定的优越性,适合在煤电厂实际操作中推广使用.采用山东某热电厂锅炉的历史运行数据作实证研究,发现用CART决策树方法给出的可控变量和它们的参数调节规则进行调控,与现行的方法相比,在各种工况下的煤耗节能百分比均超过10%.利用CART方法得到的调节规则下的煤耗比传统的关联规则方法也减少了2.3%.这个实例验证了CART决策树模型在煤电降耗的实际应用过程中的有效性.最后,为了使关键可控变量的调节范围更精确,提出采用CART与关联规则相结合的改进方法.The main source of electric power in China is coal-fired power, which consumes a large amount of coal.Therefore, reducing the coal consumption of power plants in the process of power generation is very important, which is urgent to be solved. In order to solve this problem, using a large number of data collected from thermal equipment,this paper proposes a CART method and a improved method combining the CART with association rules to find out the key controllable variables and their ranges that can reduce unit coal consumption under different working conditions.Compared with the traditional association rule algorithm used for energy saving, the CART method has higher calculation efficiency and achieves better optimizing effect. In addition, we use the CART to analysis the historical operation data of a thermal power plant in Shandong Province. It is found that under all cases of different motor power, the key controllable variables and their ranges given by the CART method can reduce the coal consumption by more than 10% compared with the current method. Compared with the traditional association rules, the regulation rules obtained using the CART method reduce the coal consumption by 2.3%. The analysis for the practical application of coal power consumption reduction rerifies the effectiveness of the CART model. Finally, in order to make the adjustment range of key controllable variables more accurate, an improved method combining And association rules is proposed.

关 键 词：运行优化 随机森林 分类和回归树 聚类分析 降低煤耗 特征选择 

分 类 号：TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]