基于风险与成本的海洋溢油事故应急控制决策  

Risk and cost based emergency control decision-making for offshore oil spills

作　　者：李新宏 张毅[1] 韩子月 贾瑞超 王靖雯 朱玉娇 LI Xinhong;ZHANG Yi;HAN Ziyue;JIA Ruichao;WANG Jingwen;ZHU Yujiao(School of Resources Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi^an Shaanxi 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2021年第4期184-190,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52004195);中国博士后科学基金资助(2020M673355);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(20CX02315A);海洋物探及勘探设备国家工程实验室开放基金资助。

摘　　要：为提高海洋溢油事故应急控制决策的科学性,降低海洋溢油事故所造成的海洋生态环境风险,提出一种基于风险与成本最优的海洋溢油事故应急控制决策方法,识别海洋原油泄漏事件升级过程中的主要变量与时序节点;采用贝叶斯网络构建海洋溢油事故演化模型,评估海洋溢油事故所产生的生态环境风险;在此基础上,引入海面溢油应急处置措施,并考虑不同溢油处置措施的执行成本与效果,构建海洋溢油事故应急控制决策的贝叶斯影响图模型,确定风险控制效果与成本最优的海面溢油事故应急控制策略。结果表明:同时采用海面燃烧和自然恢复方法是进行实际海面溢油处置的最佳方案,可降低海面溢油事故的致灾风险和控制成本。In order to make more scientific emergency decision for offshore oil spills and effectively reduce offshore ecological environment risk caused by such accidents,a risk and cost based emergency decision-making methodology was proposed,and main variables and time sequence nodes in escalation of offshore oil spills were identified.Then,an evolution model of accidents was established based on Bayesian network to assess ecological environment risk they caused.On such basis,by introducing emergency measures and considering execution cost and effect of different disposal measures,a Bayesian influence diagram model for emergency control of offshore oil spills was developed,which could determine an effectand-cost-optimal emergency control strategy.The results show that a combination of sea surface burning and natural recovery is the best solution for oil spill disposal in real cases,which could effectively reduce risk and control cost.

关 键 词：风险与成本 海洋溢油事故 应急控制 溢油处置 贝叶斯影响图 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]