基于VAR模型的乌梁素海富营养化影响因子评价  

Evaluation of the Influencing Factors of Wuliangsuhai Eutrophication Based on VAR Model

作　　者：杨文焕[1] 杜璇 姚植 石大钧 于玲红[1] YANG Wenhuan;DUXuan;YAO Zhi;SHI Dajun;YU Linghong(Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学,内蒙古包头014000

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2021年第2期25-32,共8页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0609204)。

摘　　要：该文以寒旱区退水湖泊乌梁素海为研究区域,引用VAR模型,通过其脉冲响应函数及方差分解对乌梁素海2016-2019年长序列数据进行分析,探究寒旱区湖泊总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)、温度(T)、pH、溶解氧(DO)、盐度(SAL)与综合营养指数(TLI)的动态响应关系及对湖泊富营养化的贡献度。通过脉冲响应函数可知TP、TN、SAL的变化在短期内会对乌梁素海营养状态成显著影响且三者对水体营养状态的贡献度超过50%,而各影响因子对营养状态的贡献度依次为TP(28.78%)>TN(23.13%)>SAL(10.12%)>T(6.55%)>pH(5%)>DO(0.95%)。TP、TN、SAL已成为乌梁素海富营养化的主要影响因素,同时证明了VAR模型对水体营养状态分析的适用性,为水环境分析提供了新的思路。Taking Wuliangsuhai Lake,a recession lake in the cold and arid region,as the study area,the VAR model is used to analyze the long-length sequence data of the Lake from 2016 to 2019 through impulse response function and variance decomposition to explore the dynamic response of TLI to TP,TN,T,pH,DO,SAL and the contribution to lake eutrophication.The impulse response function shows that the changes of TP,TN,and SAL have a significant impact on the nutritional status of the Lake in the short term and the contribution of the three influencing factors to the water trophic status exceeds 50%,with the contribution rate of each influencing factor as TP(28.78%)>TN(23.13%)>SAL(10.12%)>T(6.55%)>pH(5%)>DO(0.95%).TP,TN,and SAL have become the main influencing factors of the eutrophication of the Lake,and the applicability of the VAR model to the analysis of water trophic status is proved,which provides a new idea for water environment analysis.

关 键 词：寒旱区湖泊 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 富营养化 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]