长三角区域中心城市房价的传导效应——基于VAR模型  

Transmission Effect of Central Cities’ Housing Prices in the Yangtze River Delta Region: Based on VAR Model

作　　者：曹剑涛[1] CAO Jiantao

机构地区：[1]上海商学院,上海201400

出　　处：《上海商学院学报》2021年第2期80-90,共11页Business Economic Review

基　　金：上海市人民政府决策咨询研究课题(2017-GZ-23)。

摘　　要：运用VAR模型对长三角区域内上海、杭州、南京、合肥等4个行政中心城市房价的传导效应进行实证研究。结果表明:上海是该区域房价的引领者,上海房价的上涨或下跌总会滞后地影响着杭州、南京和合肥的房价,但另外3个城市的房价波动对上海房价的影响较弱;杭州作为长三角中心城市之一,其房价变动对其他3个城市房价的影响并不明显,同时自身房价波动更多受上海、南京以及合肥房价变动的影响;南京和合肥是该区域城市房价波动的传导中介者,不仅受上海房价的影响,同时也影响杭州房价的波动,但南京与合肥的传导作用是不同的,从长期趋势看,南京和上海一致,主要产生正向冲击,而合肥主要产生负向冲击。为此,提出在"一城一策"背景下建立区域房价调控协调机制势在必行。An empirical study is carried out to reveal the linkage effect of housing prices of the four central cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Hefei with the help of VAR model. The results show that Shanghai is the leader of housing prices in this region, and the rise or fall of housing prices of Shanghai always affects the housing prices of Hangzhou, Nanjing and Hefei, while the housing prices of the other three cities cannot impact those of Shanghai. With its housing price fluctuations more subject to Shanghai, Nanjing and Hefei, the housing prices of Hangzhou don’t have such conspicuous effect on those of the other three cities. The housing prices of Nanjing and Hefei can be seen as the transmission media of housing price fluctuation, for not only do they exert their influence on the housing prices of Hangzhou, but also are affected by the housing prices of Shanghai. However, the transmission effects of Nanjing and Hefei are different. From the long-term trend, Nanjing and Shanghai are the same, mainly producing positive impact, while Hefei mainly produces negative impact. Therefore, this paper proposes that it is imperative to set up the coordination mechanism of regional housing price regulation under the background of "one city and one housing policy".

关 键 词：长三角区域 中心城市 新建商品住宅 价格指数 传导效应 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]