草原土地利用变化多智能体仿真模型  

Multi-Agent Simulation Model of Grassland Land Use Change

作　　者：潘理虎[1] 秦世鹏 李晓文 PAN Li-hu;QIN Shi-peng;LI Xiao-wen(School of Computer Science and Technology,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学计算机科学与技术学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《计算机技术与发展》2021年第5期186-192,共7页Computer Technology and Development

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA20010000);山西省-中科院科技合作重大项目(20151101001);深圳市战略新兴产业发展专项资金(JSGG20170413173425899)。

摘　　要：国内草原生态系统正面临着利用方式不合理、生态压力不断加剧等一系列严重问题。据此采用多智能体建模思想,基于Repast Simphony平台设计并构建草原土地利用变化仿真模型,以模拟和预测草原土地在复杂性、非线性和交互性等多种影响因素下的状态反馈和变化过程。模型针对内蒙古鄂温克旗地区草原土地利用变化实例,详细定义了地理栅格、空间环境以及牧民、牧户和政府三类智能体。采用遗传算法优化草原效益函数,从而对每个地理栅格实现综合效益最优的牧业生产模式探索,以此实现政府智能体行为决策的优化。针对不同情景进行了仿真实验,仿真结果表明牧业劳动力转移、草原利用模式以及政府政策对于草原生态的可持续发展具有重要影响。模型对现有多智能体系统存在的过度简化与仿真度低等问题具有良好的完善补充作用,且具有较高实用价值,可为政府管理草原和牧民合理利用草原提供决策支持。China’s grassland ecosystem is facing a series of serious problems,such as unreasonable utilization methods and increasing ecological pressure.According to the idea of multi-agent modeling,we design and build a grassland land use change simulation model based on the Repast Simphony platform to simulate and predict the state feedback and change process of the grassland land under various influencing factors such as complexity,nonlinearity and interactivity.The model is based on the example of grassland land use change in Ewenke Banner,Inner Mongolia,and defines the model’s geographic grid,spatial environment,and three types of agents:herders,herdsmen,and the government.The grassland benefit function is optimized by genetic algorithm to explore the animal husbandry production mode with the best comprehensive benefit for each geographic grid of the model,so as to achieve the optimization of government agent behavior decision.Simulation experiments were carried out for different scenarios.The simulation results show that animal husbandry labor transfer,grassland use patterns and government policies have an important impact on the sustainable development of grassland ecology.The model has a perfect complementing effect on the over-simplification and low simulation of the existing multi-agent systems with high practical value,which can provide decision support for the government to manage grasslands and pastoralists to use grasslands rationally.

关 键 词：草原土地利用 多智能体模型 牧业生产模式模拟 Repast Simphony 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]